ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
45-68 | Road
4
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
54-58 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
J.T. Ginn
#35 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brady Singer
#51 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. Ginn | 8-6 | 3.51 | 1.22 | 6.0 | 5 |
| Brady Singer | 5-10 | 4.67 | 1.42 | 6.0 | 6 |
8-6
W-L
5-10
3.51 Ldr
ERA
4.67
1.22 Ldr
WHIP
1.42
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
5
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
45%
REDS
55%
ATHLETICS
46%
Book Odds: +117
REDS
56%
Book Odds: -126
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.6 (Under)
Over 9.0
45%
Under 9.0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
ATH By 1-2 runs
17.7%
ATH By 3-4 runs
12.4%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.0%
CIN By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Cincinnati
4.4
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
B
Sim
Athletics (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.4
C
Sim
u9.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
ATH @ CIN
5 - 6
Aug 5, 2026
ATH @ CIN
2 - 3
Aug 4, 2026
ATH @ CIN
4 - 5
Sep 14, 2025
CIN @ ATH
4 - 7
Sep 13, 2025
CIN @ ATH
5 - 11
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.719
▲
OPS
.699
194
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+122.2% more
Cincinnati: 5.3
vs
Athletics: 2.4
Home Runs (L5)
+119.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.7
vs
Athletics: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+33.5% more
Cincinnati: 10.8
vs
Athletics: 8.1
Total Bases (L5)
+32.8% more
Cincinnati: 15.5
vs
Athletics: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
4.0
4
CIN Score
4.4
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.9 / 8.5
5.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.8 / 8.1
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
15.5 / 11.7
6.0 / 10.0
Walks
5.3 / 2.4
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +117 / -141
→
+117 / -126
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
ATH
CIN
ATH
ML
55%
88-71
59%
95-67
49%
79-81
54%
87-74
ATS
54%
86-73
52%
84-78
50%
80-80
50%
81-80
TTL
53%
81-73-5
54%
84-73-5
54%
83-72-5
42%
66-90-5
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