LOS ANGELES
ANGELSLAA
43-70 | Road
1
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
55-58 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Grayson Rodriguez
#21 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Povich
#37 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grayson Rodriguez | 3-3 | 7.24 | 1.75 | 7.0 | 6 |
| Cade Povich | None-None | 3.91 | -- | 6.0 | 7 |
3-3
W-L
None-None
7.24
ERA
Ldr 3.91
1.75
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
6
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
34%
ORIOLES
66%
▲ Edge: +7.30% (BAL)
ANGELS
44%
Book Odds: +130
ORIOLES
59%
Book Odds: -141
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.1 (Over)
Over 9.5
57%
Under 9.5
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
LAA By 1-2 runs
14.1%
LAA By 3-4 runs
8.4%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
18.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
3.9
LOS ANGELES
Baltimore
5.7
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
3
LOS ANGELES
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Orioles
Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim
Orioles
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
Orioles (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.6
C
Sim
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
LAA @ BAL
4 - 1
Aug 5, 2026
LAA @ BAL
2 - 5
Aug 4, 2026
LAA @ BAL
1 - 3
Jun 24, 2026
BAL @ LAA
6 - 7
Jun 23, 2026
BAL @ LAA
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAA
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.04
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.234
Avg (AVG)
.234
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.679
OPS
▲
.711
154
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+70.1% more
Baltimore: 3.6
vs
Los Angeles: 2.1
Home Runs (Season)
+29.2% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Los Angeles: 154.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+10.4% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Los Angeles: 4.0
OPS (Season)
+3.2%
Baltimore: 71.1%
vs
Los Angeles: 67.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAA Score
3.9
1
BAL Score
5.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.2 / 5.4
4.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 10.4
7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
7.2 / 8.1
9.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.6 / 2.1
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +134 / -146
→
+130 / -141
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0
(38.3%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
LAA
BAL
LAA
ML
53%
83-73
59%
96-66
57%
90-69
55%
89-73
ATS
61%
95-60-1
60%
97-65
57%
90-68-1
51%
82-80
TTL
54%
81-70-5
53%
83-74-5
51%
78-75-6
52%
82-75-5
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