Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Cruz Azul vs Atlante Cruz Azul vs Atlante

CRUZ AZULCRUZ AZUL

5-1-4  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sat, Aug 1 • 11:00 PM ET
Estadio Banorte

ATLANTEATLANTE

2-5-3  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
CRUZ AZUL
30%
DRAW
27%
ATLANTE
44%
▲ Edge: +30.50% (Atlante)
74% Book Odds: -279
DRAW 20% Book Odds: +412
11% Book Odds: +836
Book Implied: 73.60% / 19.50% / 10.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.5
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 3.0 48%
Under 3.0 52%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+0.3
CRUZ AZUL
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
Cruz AzulCruz Azul (+3.5) 0 AtlanteAtlante (-3.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

61.1% / 38.9%

Shots (On Goal)

18(9) / 11(7)

Corners

7 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

42.1%

Cover

57.9%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Cruz Azul +0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Cruz Azul)

Cruz Azul By 1 goal

18.2%

Cruz Azul By 2+ goals

11.5%

Atlante By 1 goal

23.5%

Atlante By 2+ goals

21.2%

AI Model Projected Score
1.1
CRUZ AZUL
1.4
ATLANTE
Simulated Score
3
CRUZ AZUL
1
ATLANTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Atlante Win
41% Win Prob
C
Sim Cruz Azul Loss
83% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cruz Azul (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +0.3
B
Sim Cruz Azul (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 2.5
C
Sim o3.0 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 1, 2026 Cruz Azul vs Atlante 2 - 3
Mar 20, 2026 Atlante vs Cruz Azul 1 - 1
Jul 12, 2025 Cruz Azul vs Atlante 0 - 0
Feb 28, 2025 Atlante vs Cruz Azul 1 - 1
Jul 6, 2024 Cruz Azul vs Atlante 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Atlante: 1.0 vs Cruz Azul: 0.0
Wins (L5) +300.0% more
Cruz Azul: 4.0 vs Atlante: 1.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Cruz Azul: 0.0 vs Atlante: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +150.0% more
Cruz Azul: 10.0 vs Atlante: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Atlante Score 1.4 3
Cruz Azul Score 1.1 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 29.6% Draw: 26.6% Away Win: 43.8%
Cruz Azul (Home) vs Atlante (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 45.6% Under 2.5: 54.4%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.50
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Cruz Azul Share: 44.0% Atlante Share: 56.0%
AI Projected Score 1.1 - 1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Cruz Azul
Atlante
Cruz Azul
Atlante
ML
60% 6-4
60% 6-4
50% 5-5
10% 1-9
ATS
44% 4-5-1
59% 5-3-1
44% 4-5-1
27% 2-5-2
TTL
44% 4-5-1
20% 2-8
50% 5-5
70% 7-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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