LEÓNLEÓN
5-2-3 | Home
1
PACHUCAPACHUCA
1-2-3 | Away
0
AI Model Win Probability
LEÓN
35%
DRAW
22%
PACHUCA
43%
▲ Edge: +37.50% (León)
33%
Book Odds: +205
DRAW
29%
Book Odds: +243
41%
Book Odds: +142
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.6
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.1 (Over)
Over 2.5
92%
Under 2.5
8%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+0.2
LEÓN
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
51.6% / 48.4%
Shots (On Goal)
15(6) / 10(1)
Corners
3 / 6
Cards (Y/R)
4/0 - 7/1
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around León +0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (León)
León By 1 goal
19.2%
León By 2+ goals
12.9%
Pachuca By 1 goal
22.8%
Pachuca By 2+ goals
19.3%
AI Model Projected Score
León
1.7
LEÓN
Pachuca
1.9
PACHUCA
Simulated Score
León
1
LEÓN
Pachuca
2
PACHUCA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pachuca
Loss
30% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pachuca
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
León (+0.25)
Win
Proj Goals: +0.2
C
Sim
Pachuca (+0.25)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o2.5
Loss
Proj Total: 3.6
A
Sim
o2.5
Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 1, 2026
León vs Pachuca
1 - 0
Jan 22, 2022
León vs Pachuca
2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5)
+266.7% more
Pachuca: 3.0
vs
León: 11.0
Wins (L5)
+200.0% more
Pachuca: 2.0
vs
León: 0.0
Losses (L5)
+100.0% more
Pachuca: 2.0
vs
León: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
Pachuca Score
1.9
0
León Score
1.7
1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
León (Home)
vs
Pachuca (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 3.60
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
1.7 - 1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
León
Pachuca
León
Pachuca
ML
50%
5-5
40%
4-6
30%
3-7
22%
2-7
ATS
57%
4-3-3
78%
7-2-1
29%
2-5-3
22%
2-7
TTL
37%
3-6
50%
5-5
47%
4-5
22%
2-7