Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Queretaro vs Tigres Queretaro vs Tigres

QUERETAROQUERETARO

5-2-2  |  Home

3
FINAL
Sat, Aug 1 • 7:00 PM ET
Estadio Corregidora

TIGRESTIGRES

2-4-4  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
QUERETARO
27%
DRAW
27%
TIGRES
46%
▲ Edge: +27.10% (Querétaro)
31% Book Odds: +220
DRAW 30% Book Odds: +235
42% Book Odds: +137
Book Implied: 31.20% / 29.90% / 42.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.4
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.1 (Under)
Over 2.5 41%
Under 2.5 59%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-0.4
TIGRES
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
QueretaroQueretaro (+3.5) 0 TigresTigres (-3.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

34.6% / 65.4%

Shots (On Goal)

15(6) / 25(5)

Corners

6 / 11

Cards (Y/R)

6/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

39.5%

Cover

60.5%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Tigres UANL -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Tigres UANL)

Querétaro By 1 goal

17.2%

Querétaro By 2+ goals

10.3%

Tigres UANL By 1 goal

24.2%

Tigres UANL By 2+ goals

23.2%

AI Model Projected Score
1
QUERETARO
1.4
TIGRES
Simulated Score
0
QUERETARO
1
TIGRES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigres UANL Loss
42% Win Prob
C
Sim Tigres UANL Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigres UANL (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -0.4
B
Sim Tigres UANL (+0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 2.4
C
Sim u2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 1, 2026 Queretaro vs Tigres 3 - 2
Mar 15, 2026 Tigres vs Queretaro 0 - 0
Sep 28, 2025 Queretaro vs Tigres 0 - 2
Mar 7, 2025 Tigres vs Queretaro 1 - 0
Sep 17, 2024 Queretaro vs Tigres 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Queretaro: 2.0 vs Tigres: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Queretaro: 1.0 vs Tigres: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +60.0% more
Queretaro: 5.0 vs Tigres: 8.0
Goals Scored (L5) +20.0% more
Queretaro: 6.0 vs Tigres: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Tigres UANL Score 1.4 2
Querétaro Score 1.0 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 26.9% Draw: 27.0% Away Win: 46.1%
Querétaro (Home) vs Tigres UANL (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 43.0% Under 2.5: 57.0%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.40
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Querétaro Share: 41.7% Tigres UANL Share: 58.3%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Querétaro
Tigres UANL
Querétaro
Tigres UANL
ML
22% 2-7
40% 4-6
22% 2-7
10% 1-9
ATS
71% 5-2-2
72% 6-2-1
25% 2-6-1
29% 2-6-1
TTL
62% 5-3-1
30% 3-7
50% 4-4-1
50% 5-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.