SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
58-55 | Road
1
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
60-53 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael King
#34 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael King | 6-7 | 3.45 | 1.17 | 5.0 | 5 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | 5-1 | 3.66 | 1.29 | 6.2 | 3 |
6-7
W-L
5-1
3.45 Ldr
ERA
3.66
1.17 Ldr
WHIP
1.29
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.2
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
62%
DIAMONDBACKS
38%
▲ Edge: +8.40% (SD)
PADRES
54%
Book Odds: -115
DIAMONDBACKS
52%
Book Odds: -107
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 8.5
58%
Under 8.5
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.2
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI +1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
16.8%
ARI By 1-2 runs
15.8%
ARI By 3-4 runs
10.0%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
5.5
SAN DIEGO
Arizona
4.3
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.2
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.8
B
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ARI @ SD
4 - 9
Sep 26, 2026
ARI @ SD
7 - 10
Sep 25, 2026
ARI @ SD
11 - 4
Aug 6, 2026
SD @ ARI
5 - 1
Aug 5, 2026
SD @ ARI
4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Arizona
ARI
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.925
▲
OPS
.720
4
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+34.0% more
San Diego: 0.5
vs
Arizona: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+24.0% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Arizona: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+20.5%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Arizona: 72.0%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.1%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Arizona: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
5.5
1
ARI Score
4.3
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 9.3
9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 8.6
7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
12.1 / 12.9
13.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.9
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -110 / -110
→
-115 / -107
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SD
ARI
SD
ML
54%
87-74
51%
85-83
54%
86-74
51%
85-82
ATS
57%
91-70
54%
91-77
56%
89-71
55%
92-75
TTL
52%
80-73-8
51%
82-80-6
49%
73-77-9
54%
86-74-6
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