TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
66-46 | Road
13
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
45-68 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ian Seymour
#61 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tanner Gordon
#29 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Seymour | 7-3 | 4.27 | 1.12 | 6.0 | 9 |
| Tanner Gordon | None-None | 5.91 | -- | 6.0 | 3 |
7-3
W-L
None-None
4.27 Ldr
ERA
5.91
1.12
WHIP
--
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
9 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
47%
ROCKIES
53%
▲ Edge: +13.20% (COL)
RAYS
65%
Book Odds: -185
ROCKIES
40%
Book Odds: +152
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
11.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +2.7 (Under)
Over 11.5
28%
Under 11.5
72%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
TB By 1-2 runs
17.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
12.4%
COL By 1-2 runs
19.0%
COL By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4.2
TAMPA BAY
Colorado
4.6
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
7
TAMPA BAY
Colorado
5
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockies
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
A
Sim
Rays (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u11.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.8
A
Sim
o11.5
Win
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 5, 2026
TB @ COL
4 - 0
Aug 4, 2026
TB @ COL
9 - 7
Aug 3, 2026
TB @ COL
13 - 9
Mar 30, 2025
COL @ TB
4 - 6
Mar 29, 2025
COL @ TB
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.254
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.728
OPS
▲
.739
169
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+221.3% more
Colorado: 3.5
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.1
Home Runs (L5)
+40.0% more
Colorado: 1.3
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+39.1% more
Colorado: 15.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 11.3
Hits (L5)
+24.5% more
Colorado: 9.5
vs
Tampa Bay: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.2
13
COL Score
4.6
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.0
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.5 / 7.6
15.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.9
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 6.9
9.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
15.7 / 11.3
28.0 / 26.0
Walks
3.5 / 1.1
0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -163 / +135
→
-185 / +152
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 11.5
→
11.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
TB
COL
TB
ML
60%
97-64
58%
95-68
55%
88-73
58%
95-68
ATS
60%
97-64
60%
97-66
52%
83-78
55%
90-73
TTL
60%
93-62-6
47%
73-81-9
50%
77-78-6
51%
78-75-10
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