TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
53-60 | Road
3
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
58-56 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Shane Bieber
#57 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cristian Javier
#53 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 2-2 | 5.11 | 1.63 | 5.2 | 6 |
| Cristian Javier | 1-1 | 6.59 | 1.83 | 6.0 | 2 |
2-2
W-L
1-1
5.11 Ldr
ERA
6.59
1.63 Ldr
WHIP
1.83
5.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
42%
ASTROS
58%
BLUE JAYS
44%
Book Odds: +129
ASTROS
61%
Book Odds: -156
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.3
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.3 (Over)
Over 9.0
71%
Under 9.0
29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.9%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.5%
HOU By 3-4 runs
16.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5.2
TORONTO
Houston
6.1
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Houston
6
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
Astros
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.3
A
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 5, 2026
TOR @ HOU
5 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
TOR @ HOU
2 - 7
Aug 3, 2026
TOR @ HOU
3 - 1
Jun 24, 2026
HOU @ TOR
3 - 1
Jun 23, 2026
HOU @ TOR
9 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.692
▲
OPS
.582
152
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+109.0% more
Houston: 1.3
vs
Toronto: 0.2
Total Bases (L5)
+81.2% more
Houston: 20.0
vs
Toronto: 11.0
Walks (L5)
+72.2% more
Houston: 4.6
vs
Toronto: 2.7
Hits (L5)
+56.3% more
Houston: 12.3
vs
Toronto: 7.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.2
3
HOU Score
6.1
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
12.3 / 7.9
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 6.6
10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
20.0 / 11.0
10.0 / 11.0
Walks
4.6 / 2.7
5.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136
→
+129 / -156
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
TOR
HOU
TOR
ML
50%
81-82
46%
74-87
47%
77-87
50%
80-80
ATS
56%
91-72
56%
90-71
55%
90-74
49%
79-81
TTL
45%
70-84-9
51%
80-76-5
45%
69-86-9
45%
70-85-5
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