Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Rangers SF @ TEX

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

48-65  |  Road

5
FINAL
Mon, Aug 3 • 8:00 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

55-58  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Logan Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Webb

#62 | Starting Pitcher
@
Cal Quantrill
STARTING PITCHER

Cal Quantrill

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Logan Webb 6-7 3.74 1.12 6.0 8
Cal Quantrill 4-3 3.62 1.24 6.0 4
6-7 W-L 4-3
3.74 ERA Ldr 3.62
1.12 Ldr WHIP 1.24
6.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 6.0
8 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
52%
📊
RANGERS
48%
▲ Edge: +4.70% (SF)
GIANTS 47% Book Odds: +113
RANGERS 58% Book Odds: -136
Book Implied: 46.90% / 57.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 (Over)
Over 8.0 70%
Under 8.0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

49.0%

Rangers Cover

51.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

SF By 1-2 runs

18.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

13.9%

TEX By 1-2 runs

18.3%

TEX By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5.1
SAN FRANCISCO
5
TEXAS
Simulated Score
4
SAN FRANCISCO
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rangers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +0.1
A
Sim Giants (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.1
A
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 5, 2026 SF @ TEX 0 - 6
Aug 4, 2026 SF @ TEX 4 - 5
Aug 3, 2026 SF @ TEX 5 - 1
Apr 27, 2025 TEX @ SF 2 - 3
Apr 26, 2025 TEX @ SF 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.15
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.706
OPS
▲ .713
178
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +74.0% more
San Francisco: 0.8 vs Texas: 0.0
Hits (L5) +24.5% more
San Francisco: 8.4 vs Texas: 6.4
Total Bases (L5) +20.1% more
San Francisco: 13.3 vs Texas: 10.6
Home Runs (L5) +8.0% more
San Francisco: 1.3 vs Texas: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 5.1 5
TEX Score 5.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.8 5.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.4 / 8.4 7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.3 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.8 / 7.4 10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 10.6 / 13.3 11.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.3 / 2.9 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -112 / -108 → +113 / -136 ↑
36%TICKETS64%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
31%TICKETS69%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
65%TICKETS35%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
SF
TEX
SF
ML
53% 86-76
49% 79-81
57% 91-70
53% 85-75
ATS
57% 92-70
62% 100-60
61% 98-63
52% 83-77
TTL
53% 78-70-14
55% 82-68-10
55% 81-66-14
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…
yahoo 9 hours, 52 minutes ago
Diamondbacks Honor Virahonda and Hagaman as Top Minor Leaguers A…
newschannel10 2 days, 3 hours ago
Yankees' Cam Schlittler Transforms Curveball into Lethal Weapon,…
yahoo 2 days, 21 hours ago
White Sox Turn to Anthony Kay as Opener for Game 2, Aiming to St…
si 3 days, 22 hours ago
Giants Defy Odds: Harbaugh Applauds Resilience After Dramatic Wi…
sny 4 days, 4 hours ago