LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
69-44 | Road
5
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
64-49 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Justin Wrobleski
#70 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Boyd
#16 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Wrobleski | 11-2 | 3.31 | 1.02 | 4.1 | 4 |
| Matthew Boyd | 6-1 | 3.59 | 1.20 | 6.2 | 3 |
11-2
W-L
6-1
3.31 Ldr
ERA
3.59
1.02 Ldr
WHIP
1.20
4.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.2
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
39%
CUBS
61%
▲ Edge: +13.20% (CHC)
DODGERS
54%
Book Odds: -118
CUBS
48%
Book Odds: +107
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 8.0
62%
Under 8.0
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
LAD By 1-2 runs
15.5%
LAD By 3-4 runs
9.8%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
17.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
4
LOS ANGELES
Chicago
5.3
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
5
LOS ANGELES
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Dodgers
Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
A
Sim
Dodgers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.3
B
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 5, 2026
LAD @ CHC
6 - 7
Aug 4, 2026
LAD @ CHC
1 - 5
Aug 3, 2026
LAD @ CHC
5 - 10
Apr 26, 2026
CHC @ LAD
0 - 6
Apr 25, 2026
CHC @ LAD
4 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAD
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.94
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.257
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.338
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.424
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.762
▲
OPS
.374
204
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+67.4% more
Chicago: 4.3
vs
Los Angeles: 2.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+17.9% more
Chicago: 8.8
vs
Los Angeles: 7.4
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+89.9% more
Los Angeles: 4.9
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAD Score
4.0
5
CHC Score
5.3
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.7 / 9.6
10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.8
4.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 7.4
10.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
9.9 / 13.6
23.0 / 16.0
Walks
4.3 / 2.6
7.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -118 / +107
→
-118 / +107
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
LAD
CHC
LAD
ML
58%
93-68
56%
92-73
51%
82-79
48%
79-87
ATS
61%
97-63-1
59%
98-67
47%
75-85-1
43%
72-94
TTL
52%
81-74-6
48%
77-82-6
46%
72-83-6
44%
70-90-6
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