PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
57-57 | Road
4
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
69-43 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bubba Chandler
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Sproat
#23 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubba Chandler | 3-8 | 4.49 | 1.41 | 5.2 | 5 |
| Brandon Sproat | 3-6 | 5.27 | 1.39 | 3.0 | 4 |
3-8
W-L
3-6
4.49 Ldr
ERA
5.27
1.41
WHIP
Ldr 1.39
5.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
3.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
33%
BREWERS
67%
▲ Edge: +5.40% (MIL)
PIRATES
44%
Book Odds: +130
BREWERS
61%
Book Odds: -158
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.1 (Over)
Over 8.5
62%
Under 8.5
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
PIT By 1-2 runs
14.1%
PIT By 3-4 runs
8.4%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
18.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.9
PITTSBURGH
Milwaukee
5.7
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Pirates
Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.6
B
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
MIL @ PIT
4 - 7
Sep 16, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 1
Aug 6, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 5
Aug 5, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.734
OPS
▲
.743
186
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+31.8% more
Milwaukee: 4.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.7
Home Runs (L5)
+20.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+13.0% more
Milwaukee: 10.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 9.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.7% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.9
4
MIL Score
5.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.9 / 6.8
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 8.6
12.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
10.5 / 9.3
6.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.8 / 3.7
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +119 / -144
→
+130 / -158
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
PIT
MIL
PIT
ML
62%
101-61
52%
82-77
52%
84-78
52%
85-78
ATS
58%
94-68
54%
86-73
48%
78-84
50%
81-82
TTL
40%
62-92-8
47%
72-81-6
50%
77-77-8
50%
79-78-6
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