ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
56-57 | Road
13
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
63-50 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael McGreevy
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cam Schlittler
#31 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael McGreevy | 4-9 | 3.59 | 1.20 | 4.1 | 5 |
| Cam Schlittler | 10-6 | 2.26 | 0.91 | 3.0 | 6 |
4-9
W-L
10-6
3.59
ERA
Ldr 2.26
1.20
WHIP
Ldr 0.91
4.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
3.0
5
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
28%
YANKEES
72%
▲ Edge: +1.30% (NYY)
CARDINALS
33%
Book Odds: +199
YANKEES
71%
Book Odds: -246
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.1 (Under)
Over 8.0
49%
Under 8.0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
STL By 1-2 runs
12.1%
STL By 3-4 runs
6.6%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.1%
NYY By 3-4 runs
19.1%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
2.7
ST. LOUIS
New York
5.2
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Sim
Yankees
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.5
B
Sim
Yankees (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 5, 2026
STL @ NYY
3 - 1
Aug 4, 2026
STL @ NYY
0 - 2
Aug 3, 2026
STL @ NYY
13 - 7
Aug 17, 2025
NYY @ STL
8 - 4
Aug 16, 2025
NYY @ STL
12 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.691
OPS
▲
1.041
167
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+102.7% more
New York: 9.0
vs
St. Louis: 4.4
Home Runs (L5)
+87.0% more
New York: 1.0
vs
St. Louis: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+31.2% more
New York: 9.5
vs
St. Louis: 7.2
Slugging Pct (Season)
+21.6%
New York: 59.4%
vs
St. Louis: 37.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
2.7
13
NYY Score
5.2
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.2 / 8.2
10.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.2
5.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 7.2
9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
10.1 / 10.2
26.0 / 31.0
Walks
2.2 / 3.0
1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +157 / -192
→
+199 / -246
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
STL
NYY
STL
ML
47%
76-85
53%
85-74
52%
85-77
52%
84-77
ATS
59%
95-66
56%
89-70
53%
86-76
53%
85-76
TTL
53%
81-73-7
46%
68-81-10
53%
82-72-7
50%
76-75-10
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