WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
55-59 | Road
3
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
60-53 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Alvarez
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Nola
#27 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Alvarez | 2-3 | 3.94 | 1.51 | 6.1 | 5 |
| Aaron Nola | 3-9 | 5.55 | 1.45 | 6.0 | 5 |
2-3
W-L
3-9
3.94 Ldr
ERA
5.55
1.51
WHIP
Ldr 1.45
6.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
5
K (Strikeouts)
5
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
57%
PHILLIES
43%
▲ Edge: +14.30% (WSH)
NATIONALS
43%
Book Odds: +134
PHILLIES
62%
Book Odds: -162
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.8 (Over)
Over 9.0
58%
Under 9.0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.8
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI +0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.4%
WSH By 3-4 runs
15.8%
PHI By 1-2 runs
16.8%
PHI By 3-4 runs
11.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
5.3
WASHINGTON
Philadelphia
4.5
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nationals
Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim
Phillies
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.8
A
Sim
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o9.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.8
B
Sim
u9.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 0
Sep 15, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 6, 2026
WSH @ PHI
3 - 7
Aug 5, 2026
WSH @ PHI
10 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
WSH @ PHI
0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.744
▲
OPS
.724
210
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.6% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Errors (L5)
+72.5% more
Washington: 1.3
vs
Philadelphia: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+31.0% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.1% more
Washington: 8.0
vs
Philadelphia: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
5.3
3
PHI Score
4.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 5.9
5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.8
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.3 / 8.0
6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.5 / 9.8
11.0 / 12.0
Walks
4.2 / 4.4
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +123 / -149
→
+134 / -162
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
9
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
WSH
PHI
WSH
ML
59%
97-67
57%
92-69
49%
80-84
54%
87-74
ATS
65%
107-57
58%
93-68
51%
83-81
57%
91-70
TTL
57%
88-67-9
50%
77-78-6
51%
78-76-9
42%
65-90-6
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