Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Juárez vs UNAM Juárez vs UNAM

JUÁREZJUÁREZ

1-0-9  |  Home

1
FINAL
Fri, Jul 31 • 11:00 PM ET
Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

UNAMUNAM

3-3-4  |  Away

5
AI Model Win Probability
JUÁREZ
35%
DRAW
26%
UNAM
39%
▲ Edge: +34.10% (FC Juárez)
37% Book Odds: +169
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +257
38% Book Odds: +162
Book Implied: 37.20% / 28% / 38.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.7
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.0 (Under)
Over 2.75 57%
Under 2.75 43%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-0.1
UNAM
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
JuárezJuárez (+3.5) 0 UNAMUNAM (-3.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

48.5% / 51.5%

Shots (On Goal)

8(3) / 10(5)

Corners

2 / 0

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

47.3%

Cover

52.7%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Pumas UNAM -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Pumas UNAM)

FC Juárez By 1 goal

20.2%

FC Juárez By 2+ goals

14.3%

Pumas UNAM By 1 goal

22.0%

Pumas UNAM By 2+ goals

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
1.3
JUÁREZ
1.4
UNAM
Simulated Score
2
JUÁREZ
1
UNAM
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pumas UNAM Win
29% Win Prob
D
Sim FC Juárez Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pumas UNAM (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim FC Juárez (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 2.7
D
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 31, 2026 Juárez vs UNAM 1 - 5
Apr 21, 2026 UNAM vs Juárez 4 - 2
Sep 23, 2025 Juárez vs UNAM 3 - 1
Apr 27, 2025 Juárez vs UNAM 1 - 1
Apr 12, 2025 UNAM vs Juárez 0 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
UNAM: 1.0 vs Juárez: 0.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
UNAM: 2.0 vs Juárez: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +16.7% more
UNAM: 6.0 vs Juárez: 7.0
Goals Scored (L5) +33.3% more
Juárez: 4.0 vs UNAM: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Pumas UNAM Score 1.4 5
FC Juárez Score 1.3 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.8% Draw: 25.8% Away Win: 39.4%
FC Juárez (Home) vs Pumas UNAM (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 50.6% Under 2.5: 49.4%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.70
Expected Goals (xG) Share
FC Juárez Share: 48.1% Pumas UNAM Share: 51.9%
AI Projected Score 1.3 - 1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FC Juárez
Pumas UNAM
FC Juárez
Pumas UNAM
ML
60% 6-4
50% 5-5
70% 7-3
22% 2-7
ATS
38% 3-5-2
47% 4-5
78% 7-2-1
12% 1-7
TTL
56% 5-4-1
68% 6-3
78% 7-2-1
65% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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