Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Atl. San Luis vs Tijuana Atl. San Luis vs Tijuana

ATL. SAN LUISATL. SAN LUIS

5-4-5  |  Home

0
FINAL
Fri, Jul 31 • 11:00 PM ET
Estadio Libertad Financiera

TIJUANATIJUANA

5-5-3  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
ATL. SAN LUIS
17%
DRAW
16%
TIJUANA
67%
▲ Edge: +54.40% (Tijuana)
44% Book Odds: +130
DRAW 29% Book Odds: +247
31% Book Odds: +222
Book Implied: 43.50% / 28.80% / 31.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.2
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 (Over)
Over 2.5 99%
Under 2.5 1%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.4
TIJUANA
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
Atl. San LuisAtl. San Luis (+3.5) 0 TijuanaTijuana (-3.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

67.6% / 32.4%

Shots (On Goal)

14(2) / 6(1)

Corners

5 / 1

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

17.5%

Cover

82.5%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Tijuana -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Tijuana)

Atlético de San Luis By 1 goal

7.6%

Atlético de San Luis By 2+ goals

2.7%

Tijuana By 1 goal

25.2%

Tijuana By 2+ goals

47.3%

AI Model Projected Score
1.4
ATL. SAN LUIS
2.8
TIJUANA
Simulated Score
2
ATL. SAN LUIS
1
TIJUANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tijuana Loss
86% Win Prob
A
Sim Atlético de San Luis Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tijuana (-0.25) Push
Proj Goals: -1.4
D
Sim Atlético de San Luis (-0.25) Push
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 4.2
A
Sim o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 31, 2026 Atl. San Luis vs Tijuana 0 - 0
Jan 31, 2026 Atl. San Luis vs Tijuana 2 - 3
Jan 17, 2026 Tijuana vs Atl. San Luis 1 - 1
Sep 14, 2025 Atl. San Luis vs Tijuana 1 - 1
Jul 26, 2025 Tijuana vs Atl. San Luis 4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +250.0% more
Tijuana: 2.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 7.0
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Tijuana: 3.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 1.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Tijuana: 0.0 vs Atl. San Luis: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Tijuana Score 2.8 0
Atlético de San Luis Score 1.4 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 17.0% Draw: 16.4% Away Win: 66.7%
Atlético de San Luis (Home) vs Tijuana (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 79.0% Under 2.5: 21.0%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 4.20
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlético de San Luis Share: 33.3% Tijuana Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.4 - 2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlético de San Luis
Tijuana
Atlético de San Luis
Tijuana
ML
29% 4-10
15% 2-11
43% 6-8
46% 6-7
ATS
62% 8-5-1
73% 8-3-2
58% 7-5-2
55% 6-5-2
TTL
36% 4-8-1
46% 6-7
68% 8-4-1
40% 5-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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