PUEBLAPUEBLA
4-2-4 | Home
1
GUADALAJARAGUADALAJARA
5-3-2 | Away
1
AI Model Win Probability
PUEBLA
31%
DRAW
28%
GUADALAJARA
41%
▲ Edge: +49.60% (Puebla)
17%
Book Odds: +478
DRAW
22%
Book Odds: +363
65%
Book Odds: -185
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.4
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.6 (Under)
Over 3.0
43%
Under 3.0
57%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+0.2
PUEBLA
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
34.8% / 65.2%
Shots (On Goal)
7(3) / 24(8)
Corners
1 / 7
Cards (Y/R)
0/0 - 0/0
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Puebla +0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Puebla)
Puebla By 1 goal
19.2%
Puebla By 2+ goals
12.9%
Guadalajara By 1 goal
22.8%
Guadalajara By 2+ goals
19.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Puebla
1.1
PUEBLA
Guadalajara
1.3
GUADALAJARA
Simulated Score
Puebla
1
PUEBLA
Guadalajara
2
GUADALAJARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guadalajara
Win
33% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guadalajara
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Puebla (+1)
Win
Proj Goals: +0.2
C
Sim
Puebla (+1)
Push
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u3.0
Win
Proj Total: 2.4
C
Sim
u3.0
Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 31, 2026
Puebla vs Guadalajara
1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5)
+100.0% more
Guadalajara: 1.0
vs
Puebla: 0.0
Losses (L5)
+50.0% more
Guadalajara: 2.0
vs
Puebla: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
Guadalajara Score
1.3
1
Puebla Score
1.1
1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Puebla (Home)
vs
Guadalajara (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 2.40
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
1.1 - 1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Puebla
Guadalajara
Puebla
Guadalajara
ML
50%
5-5
50%
5-5
50%
5-5
60%
6-4
ATS
62%
5-3-2
86%
6-1-3
64%
4-2-3
57%
4-3-3
TTL
44%
4-5-1
83%
7-1-1
50%
5-5
56%
5-4-1