Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Dodgers BOS @ LAD

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

60-51  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sun, Aug 2 • 7:20 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

69-43  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Jake Bennett
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Bennett

#64 | Starting Pitcher
@
Emmet Sheehan
STARTING PITCHER

Emmet Sheehan

#80 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jake Bennett 6-4 2.90 0.97 5.2 4
Emmet Sheehan 4-7 5.29 1.25 2.2 4
6-4 W-L 4-7
2.90 Ldr ERA 5.29
0.97 Ldr WHIP 1.25
5.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 2.2
4 K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
60%
📊
DODGERS
40%
▲ Edge: +20.20% (BOS)
RED SOX 40% Book Odds: +149
DODGERS 64% Book Odds: -181
Book Implied: 40.20% / 64.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.4 (Under)
Over 8.5 47%
Under 8.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

39.2%

Dodgers Cover

60.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD +1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

16.6%

LAD By 1-2 runs

16.1%

LAD By 3-4 runs

10.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.6
BOSTON
3.5
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
5
BOSTON
3
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Red Sox Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.1
A
Sim Red Sox (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 BOS @ LAD 8 - 4
Aug 1, 2026 BOS @ LAD 3 - 2
Jul 31, 2026 BOS @ LAD 9 - 4
Jul 27, 2025 LAD @ BOS 3 - 4
Jul 26, 2025 LAD @ BOS 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Los Angeles LAD
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.409
OPS
▲ .762
2
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +22.7% more
Boston: 1.5 vs Los Angeles: 1.2
Walks (L5) +18.8% more
Boston: 2.9 vs Los Angeles: 2.4
Home Runs (Season) +10100.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +394.0% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Boston: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 4.6 8
LAD Score 3.5 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.8 / 7.8 9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.5 0.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 7.6 6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 14.9 / 13.8 11.0 / 21.0
Walks 2.4 / 2.9 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +145 / -176 → +149 / -181 ↑
28%TICKETS72%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
41%TICKETS59%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8.5 ↑
83%TICKETS17%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
BOS
LAD
BOS
ML
56% 92-73
50% 80-80
48% 79-87
47% 76-87
ATS
59% 98-67
58% 93-67
43% 72-94
48% 79-84
TTL
48% 77-82-6
46% 72-83-5
44% 70-90-6
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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