SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
47-65 | Road
4
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
58-54 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Landen Roupp
#65 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Hart
#68 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landen Roupp | 7-9 | 4.34 | 1.26 | 4.2 | 6 |
| Kyle Hart | 0-2 | 4.53 | 1.11 | 3.0 | 2 |
7-9
W-L
0-2
4.34 Ldr
ERA
4.53
1.26
WHIP
Ldr 1.11
4.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
3.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
60%
PADRES
40%
▲ Edge: +11.90% (SF)
GIANTS
48%
Book Odds: +109
PADRES
57%
Book Odds: -131
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.6 (Over)
Over 8.0
73%
Under 8.0
27%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SF By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SF By 3-4 runs
16.3%
SD By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SD By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
5.8
SAN FRANCISCO
San Diego
4.8
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
San Francisco
3
SAN FRANCISCO
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Giants
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Padres
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
A
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.6
A
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
SD @ SF
6 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
SD @ SF
7 - 6
Sep 11, 2026
SD @ SF
7 - 5
Aug 2, 2026
SF @ SD
4 - 5
Aug 1, 2026
SF @ SD
5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.13
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.706
OPS
▲
.925
178
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.8% more
San Francisco: 178.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+14.0% more
San Francisco: 0.9
vs
San Diego: 0.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+45.3% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
San Francisco: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+21.9%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
San Francisco: 70.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
5.8
4
SD Score
4.8
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
9.9 / 9.1
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.9
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 7.1
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 12.9
11.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.3
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +115 / -138
→
+109 / -131
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
SF
SD
SF
ML
51%
85-83
49%
79-81
51%
85-82
53%
85-75
ATS
54%
91-77
62%
100-60
55%
92-75
52%
83-77
TTL
51%
82-80-6
55%
82-68-10
54%
86-74-6
46%
68-81-11
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