MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
56-57 | Road
6
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
55-58 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Taj Bradley
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
George Kirby
#68 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taj Bradley | 9-4 | 3.69 | 1.21 | 6.0 | 2 |
| George Kirby | 8-9 | 3.76 | 1.30 | 7.0 | 3 |
9-4
W-L
8-9
3.69 Ldr
ERA
3.76
1.21 Ldr
WHIP
1.30
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
51%
MARINERS
49%
▲ Edge: +6.20% (MIN)
TWINS
45%
Book Odds: +122
MARINERS
60%
Book Odds: -147
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.9 (Over)
Over 7.0
60%
Under 7.0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
MIN By 1-2 runs
18.6%
MIN By 3-4 runs
13.9%
SEA By 1-2 runs
18.3%
SEA By 3-4 runs
13.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Seattle
3.9
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Twins
Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.1
A
Sim
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
B
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
MIN @ SEA
6 - 7
Aug 1, 2026
MIN @ SEA
3 - 4
Jul 31, 2026
MIN @ SEA
5 - 3
Apr 29, 2026
SEA @ MIN
5 - 3
Apr 28, 2026
SEA @ MIN
7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Seattle
SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.720
▲
OPS
.693
187
▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+33.1% more
Minnesota: 1.5
vs
Seattle: 1.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+10.1% more
Minnesota: 4.6
vs
Seattle: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+2.7%
Minnesota: 72.0%
vs
Seattle: 69.3%
Home Runs (Season)
+2.7% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Seattle: 182.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
4.0
6
SEA Score
3.9
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.7 / 6.6
14.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.5
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 7.6
5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 12.9
18.0 / 21.0
Walks
4.8 / 2.3
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136
→
+122 / -147
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
7
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
MIN
SEA
MIN
ML
50%
81-81
52%
84-78
52%
85-77
50%
80-81
ATS
60%
98-64
59%
95-67
59%
95-67
59%
95-66
TTL
56%
85-67-10
51%
78-75-9
53%
81-71-10
53%
80-72-9
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