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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

46-67  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Aug 2 • 3:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

45-67  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Seth Lugo
STARTING PITCHER

Seth Lugo

#67 | Starting Pitcher
@
Kyle Freeland
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Freeland

#21 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Seth Lugo 4-6 4.41 1.37 5.0 3
Kyle Freeland 2-10 6.81 1.55 9.0 8
4-6 W-L 2-10
4.41 Ldr ERA 6.81
1.37 Ldr WHIP 1.55
5.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 9.0
3 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
63%
📊
ROCKIES
37%
▲ Edge: +14.30% (KC)
ROYALS 49% Book Odds: +106
ROCKIES 56% Book Odds: -127
Book Implied: 48.50% / 55.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
11.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.4 (Under)
Over 11.5 29%
Under 11.5 71%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.3
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

37.3%

Rockies Cover

62.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL +1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

KC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

KC By 3-4 runs

17.0%

COL By 1-2 runs

15.5%

COL By 3-4 runs

9.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
KANSAS CITY
3.9
COLORADO
Simulated Score
6
KANSAS CITY
7
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Rockies Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.3
A
Sim Royals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u11.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.1
A
Sim o11.5 Loss
Proj Total: 13.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 KC @ COL 1 - 8
Aug 1, 2026 KC @ COL 6 - 12
Jul 31, 2026 KC @ COL 1 - 3
Apr 24, 2025 COL @ KC 2 - 6
Apr 22, 2025 COL @ KC 3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.718
OPS
▲ .739
170
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +16.3% more
Kansas City: 1.7 vs Colorado: 1.4
Total Bases (L5) +9.7% more
Kansas City: 17.3 vs Colorado: 15.6
Strikeouts (L5) +50.0% more
Colorado: 9.6 vs Kansas City: 6.4
Walks (L5) +42.1% more
Colorado: 2.7 vs Kansas City: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 5.2 1
COL Score 3.9 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.7 / 8.9 9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.7 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 6.4 5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.6 / 17.3 16.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.7 / 1.9 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -106 / -114 → +106 / -127 ↑
52%TICKETS48%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
62%TICKETS38%
85%MONEY15%
Total (O/U)
Open: 12.5 → 11.5 ↓
68%TICKETS32%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
KC
COL
KC
ML
60% 97-64
55% 89-72
55% 88-73
56% 90-70
ATS
60% 97-64
57% 91-70
52% 83-78
58% 93-67
TTL
60% 93-62-6
58% 90-64-7
50% 77-78-6
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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