Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Cubs NYY @ CHC

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

63-49  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Aug 2 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

63-49  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Gerrit Cole
STARTING PITCHER

Gerrit Cole

#45 | Starting Pitcher
@
Colin Rea
STARTING PITCHER

Colin Rea

#53 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gerrit Cole 4-5 3.42 1.09 5.2 5
Colin Rea 8-7 4.59 1.40 6.0 7
4-5 W-L 8-7
3.42 Ldr ERA 4.59
1.09 Ldr WHIP 1.40
5.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
5 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
41%
📊
CUBS
59%
YANKEES --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Chicago)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

39.2%

Cubs Cover

60.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

NYY By 1-2 runs

16.1%

NYY By 3-4 runs

10.3%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.4
NEW YORK
5.5
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
NEW YORK
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cubs (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
C
Sim
Proj Runs:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.9
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 NYY @ CHC 2 - 1
Aug 1, 2026 NYY @ CHC 2 - 5
Jul 31, 2026 NYY @ CHC 2 - 0
Jul 13, 2025 CHC @ NYY 4 - 1
Jul 12, 2025 CHC @ NYY 5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Chicago CHC
1
Games Played
▲ 2
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
1.041 ▲
OPS
.374
2 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +23.0% more
Chicago: 3.5 vs New York: 2.8
Hits (L5) +19.4% more
Chicago: 8.1 vs New York: 6.8
Errors (L5) +17.0% more
Chicago: 0.4 vs New York: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +12.0% more
Chicago: 12.4 vs New York: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 4.4 2
CHC Score 5.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 6.8 4.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 9.7 10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 12.4 / 11.1 5.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.5 / 2.8 6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
NYY
CHC
NYY
ML
58% 93-68
47% 76-85
51% 82-79
52% 85-77
ATS
61% 97-63-1
59% 95-66
47% 75-85-1
53% 86-76
TTL
52% 81-74-6
53% 81-73-7
46% 72-83-6
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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