TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
55-57 | Road
3
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
58-55 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kumar Rocker
#80 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Peter Lambert
#38 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kumar Rocker | 4-8 | 4.08 | 1.29 | 5.1 | 5 |
| Peter Lambert | 8-5 | 3.06 | 1.15 | 5.2 | 8 |
4-8
W-L
8-5
4.08
ERA
Ldr 3.06
1.29
WHIP
Ldr 1.15
5.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.2
5
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
49%
ASTROS
51%
▲ Edge: +3.10% (TEX)
RANGERS
46%
Book Odds: +118
ASTROS
59%
Book Odds: -142
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 8.5
53%
Under 8.5
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
TEX By 1-2 runs
18.1%
TEX By 3-4 runs
13.0%
HOU By 1-2 runs
18.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
14.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4.3
TEXAS
Houston
4.5
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim
Rangers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
TEX @ HOU
3 - 7
Aug 1, 2026
TEX @ HOU
4 - 5
Jul 31, 2026
TEX @ HOU
2 - 11
Jul 12, 2026
HOU @ TEX
5 - 6
Jul 11, 2026
HOU @ TEX
9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.15
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.713
▲
OPS
.582
183
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+66.8% more
Houston: 10.9
vs
Texas: 6.5
Total Bases (L5)
+61.9% more
Houston: 18.5
vs
Texas: 11.4
Walks (L5)
+42.7% more
Houston: 4.9
vs
Texas: 3.4
Home Runs (L5)
+19.7% more
Houston: 1.5
vs
Texas: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.3
3
HOU Score
4.5
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.9 / 6.5
15.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 9.7
6.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
18.5 / 11.4
23.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.9 / 3.4
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +104 / -126
→
+118 / -142
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
TEX
HOU
TEX
ML
50%
81-82
53%
86-76
47%
77-87
57%
91-70
ATS
56%
91-72
57%
92-70
55%
90-74
61%
98-63
TTL
45%
70-84-9
53%
78-70-14
45%
69-86-9
55%
81-66-14
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