Home / MLB Projections MLB / Pirates @ Reds PIT @ CIN

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

56-57  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Aug 2 • 1:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

53-58  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Mitch Keller
STARTING PITCHER

Mitch Keller

#23 | Starting Pitcher
@
Chase Burns
STARTING PITCHER

Chase Burns

#26 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mitch Keller 6-7 5.29 1.31 2.0 2
Chase Burns 12-1 2.35 1.12 6.0 9
6-7 W-L 12-1
5.29 ERA Ldr 2.35
1.31 WHIP Ldr 1.12
2.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
31%
📊
REDS
69%
▲ Edge: +11.30% (CIN)
PIRATES 47% Book Odds: +112
REDS 57% Book Odds: -135
Book Implied: 47.20% / 57.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 8.5 54%
Under 8.5 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

29.1%

Reds Cover

70.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

PIT By 1-2 runs

13.0%

PIT By 3-4 runs

7.3%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.4%

CIN By 3-4 runs

18.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.3
PITTSBURGH
5.5
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
5
PITTSBURGH
3
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Reds Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim Pirates Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Reds (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
C
Sim Pirates (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.8
C
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 PIT @ CIN 2 - 10
Aug 1, 2026 PIT @ CIN 4 - 1
Jul 31, 2026 PIT @ CIN 7 - 8
Jul 30, 2026 PIT @ CIN 2 - 3
Jun 28, 2026 CIN @ PIT 4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.734 ▲
OPS
.699
186
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +82.0% more
Cincinnati: 11.7 vs Pittsburgh: 6.4
Home Runs (L5) +43.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.0 vs Pittsburgh: 0.6
Home Runs (Season) +14.5% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Pittsburgh: 186.0
Walks (L5) +12.3% more
Cincinnati: 4.5 vs Pittsburgh: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 3.3 2
CIN Score 5.5 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.8 / 8.2 10.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.6 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 11.7 / 6.4 9.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 11.8 / 11.4 23.0 / 5.0
Walks 4.5 / 4.0 7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +124 / -150 → +112 / -135 ↓
28%TICKETS72%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
15%TICKETS85%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
49%TICKETS51%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
PIT
CIN
PIT
ML
55% 88-71
52% 82-77
49% 79-81
52% 85-78
ATS
54% 86-73
54% 86-73
50% 80-80
50% 81-82
TTL
53% 81-73-5
47% 72-81-6
54% 83-72-5
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
cbssports 0 minutes ago
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
foxnews 0 minutes ago
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
si 0 minutes ago
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
si 2 hours, 58 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 3 hours, 9 minutes ago