MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
58-55 | Road
2
NEW YORK
METSNYM
47-66 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sandy Alcantara
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Robert Stock
#89 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 11-6 | 3.68 | 1.21 | 6.0 | 5 |
| Robert Stock | 0-0 | 1.80 | 0.00 | 5.0 | 4 |
11-6
W-L
0-0
3.68
ERA
Ldr 1.80
1.21
WHIP
Ldr 0.00
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
39%
METS
61%
MARLINS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
57%
Under 0
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
MIA By 1-2 runs
15.8%
MIA By 3-4 runs
10.0%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYM By 3-4 runs
16.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4
MIAMI
New York
5.2
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Miami
MIAMI
New York
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim
Proj Runs:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.2
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
NYM @ MIA
15 - 14
Sep 8, 2026
NYM @ MIA
7 - 5
Sep 7, 2026
NYM @ MIA
9 - 4
Aug 2, 2026
MIA @ NYM
2 - 0
Aug 1, 2026
MIA @ NYM
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.727
▲
OPS
.705
168
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+37.0% more
New York: 0.9
vs
Miami: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+24.9% more
New York: 8.5
vs
Miami: 6.8
Home Runs (Season)
+21.4% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Walks (L5)
+48.8% more
Miami: 3.7
vs
New York: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.0
2
NYM Score
5.2
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 8.5
5.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.6
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 6.8
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 14.8
8.0 / 8.0
Walks
1.9 / 3.7
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
MIA
NYM
MIA
ML
50%
79-80
48%
78-84
48%
76-83
55%
88-72
ATS
58%
93-66
56%
91-71
49%
78-81
54%
86-74
TTL
55%
80-66-13
56%
88-69-5
51%
74-72-13
53%
82-73-5
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