CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
59-52 | Road
9
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
65-46 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Anthony Kay
#18 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Griffin Jax
#22 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Kay | 7-5 | 4.01 | 1.36 | 6.1 | 3 |
| Griffin Jax | 6-8 | 3.63 | 1.23 | 5.0 | 8 |
7-5
W-L
6-8
4.01
ERA
Ldr 3.63
1.36
WHIP
Ldr 1.23
6.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
55%
RAYS
45%
▲ Edge: +10.50% (CHW)
WHITE SOX
45%
Book Odds: +124
RAYS
60%
Book Odds: -150
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.6 (Over)
Over 7.5
57%
Under 7.5
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB +0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.1%
CHW By 3-4 runs
15.0%
TB By 1-2 runs
17.5%
TB By 3-4 runs
12.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.3
CHICAGO
Tampa Bay
3.8
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
White Sox
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.5
A
Sim
Rays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
C
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
CHW @ TB
9 - 1
Aug 1, 2026
CHW @ TB
0 - 1
Jul 31, 2026
CHW @ TB
6 - 1
Apr 16, 2026
TB @ CHW
5 - 3
Apr 15, 2026
TB @ CHW
8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.826
▲
OPS
.728
1
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+57.4% more
Chicago: 2.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.1
Home Runs (L5)
+39.2% more
Chicago: 1.3
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.8
Errors (L5)
+32.0% more
Chicago: 0.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+24.3% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
4.3
9
TB Score
3.8
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.9
2.0 / 2.0
Hits
5.9 / 6.6
11.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.3
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 10.3
5.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
9.4 / 11.3
15.0 / 21.0
Walks
1.1 / 2.7
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +124 / -150
→
+124 / -150
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CHW
TB
CHW
ML
58%
95-68
49%
81-86
58%
95-68
56%
94-73
ATS
60%
97-66
59%
99-68
55%
90-73
56%
93-74
TTL
47%
73-81-9
58%
96-69-2
51%
78-75-10
51%
84-81-2
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