ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
59-53 | Road
0
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
57-56 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gavin Williams
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | 8-8 | 5.04 | 1.45 | 5.0 | 5 |
| Gavin Williams | 10-6 | 3.56 | 1.07 | 5.2 | 10 |
8-8
W-L
10-6
5.04
ERA
Ldr 3.56
1.45
WHIP
Ldr 1.07
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.2
5
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 10
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
49%
GUARDIANS
51%
▲ Edge: +3.10% (ARI)
DIAMONDBACKS
46%
Book Odds: +118
GUARDIANS
64%
Book Odds: -175
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.1 (Over)
Over 8.0
52%
Under 8.0
48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
ARI By 1-2 runs
18.3%
ARI By 3-4 runs
13.3%
CLE By 1-2 runs
18.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Cleveland
4.1
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
ARI @ CLE
0 - 5
Aug 1, 2026
ARI @ CLE
12 - 8
Jul 31, 2026
ARI @ CLE
4 - 1
Aug 20, 2025
CLE @ ARI
2 - 3
Aug 19, 2025
CLE @ ARI
5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.720
▲
OPS
.696
166
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+43.0% more
Cleveland: 0.7
vs
Arizona: 0.2
Walks (L5)
+25.0% more
Cleveland: 3.6
vs
Arizona: 2.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.2% more
Cleveland: 7.7
vs
Arizona: 6.7
Home Runs (L5)
+29.0% more
Arizona: 1.3
vs
Cleveland: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.0
0
CLE Score
4.1
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.2
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 10.8
8.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.3
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 6.7
8.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 17.1
12.0 / 2.0
Walks
3.6 / 2.8
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +118 / -142
→
+118 / -175
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
ARI
CLE
ARI
ML
54%
87-74
54%
87-74
49%
80-82
54%
86-74
ATS
58%
93-68
57%
91-70
59%
95-67
56%
89-71
TTL
55%
88-71-2
52%
80-73-8
43%
69-90-2
49%
73-77-9
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