ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
55-57 | Road
5
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
52-60 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Liberatore
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Max Scherzer
#31 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | 5-8 | 4.97 | 1.56 | 6.0 | 7 |
| Max Scherzer | 1-4 | 7.92 | 1.82 | 6.0 | 5 |
5-8
W-L
1-4
4.97 Ldr
ERA
7.92
1.56 Ldr
WHIP
1.82
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
5
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
73%
BLUE JAYS
27%
▲ Edge: +26% (STL)
CARDINALS
47%
Book Odds: +113
BLUE JAYS
58%
Book Odds: -136
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.4 (Over)
Over 8.5
65%
Under 8.5
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
18.9%
STL By 3-4 runs
19.4%
TOR By 1-2 runs
11.5%
TOR By 3-4 runs
6.1%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
6.3
ST. LOUIS
Toronto
3.6
TORONTO
Simulated Score
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Win
73% Win Prob
A
Sim
Cardinals
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cardinals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.7
A
Sim
Cardinals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.9
B
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
STL @ TOR
5 - 1
Aug 1, 2026
STL @ TOR
1 - 5
Jul 31, 2026
STL @ TOR
1 - 3
Jun 11, 2025
TOR @ STL
5 - 2
Jun 10, 2025
TOR @ STL
10 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.691
OPS
▲
.692
167
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+37.9% more
St. Louis: 7.8
vs
Toronto: 4.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+9.9% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Home Runs (Season)
+9.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.3%
St. Louis: 31.3%
vs
Toronto: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
6.3
5
TOR Score
3.6
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.3 / 8.3
5.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
4.9 / 7.8
10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 10.8
8.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.0
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -109 / -111
→
+113 / -136
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
8.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
STL
TOR
STL
ML
46%
74-87
53%
85-74
50%
80-80
52%
84-77
ATS
56%
90-71
56%
89-70
49%
79-81
53%
85-76
TTL
51%
80-76-5
46%
68-81-10
45%
70-85-5
50%
76-75-10
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