WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
55-58 | Road
2
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
67-45 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Cavalli
#24 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
JR Ritchie
#60 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cavalli | 8-4 | 3.52 | 1.29 | 6.0 | 3 |
| JR Ritchie | 1-2 | 4.50 | 1.41 | 4.0 | 4 |
8-4
W-L
1-2
3.52 Ldr
ERA
4.50
1.29 Ldr
WHIP
1.41
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.0
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
68%
BRAVES
32%
▲ Edge: +18% (WSH)
NATIONALS
50%
Book Odds: +101
BRAVES
55%
Book Odds: -122
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.6 (Under)
Over 9.0
47%
Under 9.0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
18.4%
ATL By 1-2 runs
13.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
5.2
WASHINGTON
Atlanta
3.2
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nationals
Loss
68% Win Prob
B
Sim
Braves
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Braves (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
ATL @ WSH
9 - 0
Sep 1, 2026
ATL @ WSH
5 - 9
Aug 2, 2026
WSH @ ATL
2 - 4
Aug 1, 2026
WSH @ ATL
3 - 8
Jul 31, 2026
WSH @ ATL
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
5.00
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.744
OPS
▲
.757
210
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.5% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+20.9% more
Washington: 4.0
vs
Atlanta: 3.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+1.4% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Atlanta: 5.0
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.3%
Washington: 24.6%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
5.2
2
ATL Score
3.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 1.0
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.8 / 6.8
7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
2.0 / 1.3
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 6.5
4.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
16.2 / 12.7
14.0 / 4.0
Walks
3.2 / 4.0
1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +104 / -126
→
+101 / -122
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
WSH
ATL
WSH
ML
46%
77-90
57%
92-69
54%
90-78
54%
87-74
ATS
57%
96-71
58%
93-68
52%
87-81
57%
91-70
TTL
53%
83-73-11
50%
77-78-6
49%
76-80-11
42%
65-90-6
Contextual Game News
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