Home / MLB Projections MLB / Phillies @ Orioles PHI @ BAL

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

59-53  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sun, Aug 2 • 1:35 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

54-58  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Zack Wheeler
STARTING PITCHER

Zack Wheeler

#45 | Starting Pitcher
@
Kyle Bradish
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Bradish

#38 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Zack Wheeler 10-2 2.49 0.92 2.0 3
Kyle Bradish 7-9 3.79 1.36 3.0 3
10-2 W-L 7-9
2.49 Ldr ERA 3.79
0.92 Ldr WHIP 1.36
2.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 3.0
3 K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
62%
📊
ORIOLES
38%
▲ Edge: +1.90% (PHI)
PHILLIES 60% Book Odds: -150
ORIOLES 45% Book Odds: +124
Book Implied: 60% / 44.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 (Over)
Over 8.0 57%
Under 8.0 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.3
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

37.3%

Orioles Cover

62.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL +1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PHI By 3-4 runs

17.0%

BAL By 1-2 runs

15.5%

BAL By 3-4 runs

9.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5
PHILADELPHIA
3.7
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Orioles Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Orioles (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.3
D
Sim Orioles (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Push
Proj Total: 8.7
C
Sim o8.0 Push
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 PHI @ BAL 8 - 0
Aug 1, 2026 PHI @ BAL 5 - 0
Jul 31, 2026 PHI @ BAL 4 - 6
Aug 6, 2025 BAL @ PHI 5 - 1
Aug 5, 2025 BAL @ PHI 0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Baltimore BAL
2
Games Played
▲ 161
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .314
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.724 ▲
OPS
.711
3
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +29.9% more
Philadelphia: 8.2 vs Baltimore: 5.7
Total Bases (L5) +27.7% more
Philadelphia: 12.2 vs Baltimore: 8.8
Home Runs (L5) +23.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.8 vs Baltimore: 0.5
Slugging Pct (Season) +4.2%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Baltimore: 39.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 5.0 8
BAL Score 3.7 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.7 / 8.2 4.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.8 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.6 / 7.5 7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 8.8 / 12.2 4.0 / 16.0
Walks 4.9 / 3.3 1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -132 / +109 → -150 / +124 ↓
78%TICKETS22%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
81%TICKETS19%
89%MONEY11%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
67%TICKETS33%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
PHI
BAL
PHI
ML
53% 83-73
59% 97-67
57% 90-69
49% 80-84
ATS
61% 95-60-1
65% 107-57
57% 90-68-1
51% 83-81
TTL
54% 81-70-5
57% 88-67-9
51% 78-75-6
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 18 hours, 36 minutes ago
Yankees Fan Ejected After Interfering with Potential Game-Tying …
headtopics 19 hours, 1 minute ago
Orioles' Centerfield Crisis: Why Byron Buxton Could Be the Answer
si 1 day, 6 hours ago
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
si 1 day, 6 hours ago
Phillies' 2027 Rotation Projection: Wheeler and Sanchez Lead Sta…
si 1 day, 13 hours ago