Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Padres SF @ SD

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

47-64  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Aug 1 • 8:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

57-54  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Dylan Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Smith

#66 | Relief Pitcher
@
Walker Buehler
STARTING PITCHER

Walker Buehler

#10 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dylan Smith None-None 2.89 -- 0.2 --
Walker Buehler 6-5 5.18 1.41 4.1 1
None-None W-L 6-5
2.89 Ldr ERA 5.18
-- WHIP 1.41
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.1
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
56%
📊
PADRES
44%
▲ Edge: +11.80% (SF)
GIANTS 45% Book Odds: +124
PADRES 60% Book Odds: -150
Book Implied: 44.60% / 60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.1
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 (Over)
Over 8.5 72%
Under 8.5 28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.7
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

43.1%

Padres Cover

56.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD +0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SF By 1-2 runs

19.4%

SF By 3-4 runs

15.5%

SD By 1-2 runs

17.0%

SD By 3-4 runs

11.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.9
SAN FRANCISCO
5.2
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.7
A
Sim Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.1
A
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 SD @ SF 6 - 4
Sep 12, 2026 SD @ SF 7 - 6
Sep 11, 2026 SD @ SF 7 - 5
Aug 2, 2026 SF @ SD 4 - 5
Aug 1, 2026 SF @ SD 5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.706
OPS
▲ .925
178 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +97.8% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +21.0% more
San Francisco: 0.8 vs San Diego: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season) +45.3% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Hits (L5) +28.1% more
San Diego: 9.9 vs San Francisco: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 5.9 5
SD Score 5.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.9 / 7.7 10.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.7 / 6.1 12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 13.2 / 10.9 15.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.0 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +129 / -156 → +124 / -150 ↓
24%TICKETS76%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
13%TICKETS87%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
70%TICKETS30%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
SF
SD
SF
ML
51% 85-83
49% 79-81
51% 85-82
53% 85-75
ATS
54% 91-77
62% 100-60
55% 92-75
52% 83-77
TTL
51% 82-80-6
55% 82-68-10
54% 86-74-6
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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