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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

46-66  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Aug 1 • 8:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

44-67  |  Home

12
Probable Pitchers
Luinder Avila
STARTING PITCHER

Luinder Avila

#58 | SP
@
Ryan Feltner
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Feltner

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Luinder Avila 5-3 5.53 1.57 2.2 2
Ryan Feltner 3-5 5.75 1.46 6.0 3
5-3 W-L 3-5
5.53 Ldr ERA 5.75
1.57 WHIP Ldr 1.46
2.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
54%
📊
ROCKIES
46%
▲ Edge: +6.50% (KC)
ROYALS 48% Book Odds: +109
ROCKIES 57% Book Odds: -131
Book Implied: 47.80% / 56.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
11.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.3 (Under)
Over 11.5 25%
Under 11.5 75%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.4
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

46.0%

Rockies Cover

54.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL +0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

KC By 1-2 runs

19.0%

KC By 3-4 runs

14.7%

COL By 1-2 runs

17.7%

COL By 3-4 runs

12.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.8
KANSAS CITY
4.4
COLORADO
Simulated Score
5
KANSAS CITY
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockies Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.4
A
Sim Royals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u11.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.2
A
Sim u11.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 KC @ COL 1 - 8
Aug 1, 2026 KC @ COL 6 - 12
Jul 31, 2026 KC @ COL 1 - 3
Apr 24, 2025 COL @ KC 2 - 6
Apr 22, 2025 COL @ KC 3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.718
OPS
▲ .739
170
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +40.0% more
Kansas City: 1.0 vs Colorado: 0.6
Walks (L5) +33.8% more
Kansas City: 2.3 vs Colorado: 1.6
Total Bases (L5) +20.3% more
Kansas City: 12.4 vs Colorado: 9.9
Hits (L5) +10.2% more
Kansas City: 7.3 vs Colorado: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.8 6
COL Score 4.4 12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.5 / 7.3 16.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.0 3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 10.4 / 6.6 8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 9.9 / 12.4 27.0 / 27.0
Walks 1.6 / 2.3 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -111 → +109 / -131 ↑
50%TICKETS50%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
49%TICKETS51%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: 11 → 11.5 ↑
33%TICKETS67%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
KC
COL
KC
ML
60% 97-64
55% 89-72
55% 88-73
56% 90-70
ATS
60% 97-64
57% 91-70
52% 83-78
58% 93-67
TTL
60% 93-62-6
58% 90-64-7
50% 77-78-6
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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