NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
62-49 | Road
2
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
63-48 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Max Fried
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
David Peterson
#19 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | 4-3 | 3.12 | 1.02 | 5.1 | 7 |
| David Peterson | 6-7 | 5.52 | 1.52 | 6.1 | 8 |
4-3
W-L
6-7
3.12 Ldr
ERA
5.52
1.02 Ldr
WHIP
1.52
5.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.1
7
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
44%
CUBS
56%
▲ Edge: +2.40% (CHC)
YANKEES
49%
Book Odds: +106
CUBS
54%
Book Odds: -115
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
6.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +4.2 (Over)
Over 6.0
84%
Under 6.0
16%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
NYY By 1-2 runs
17.2%
NYY By 3-4 runs
11.8%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.3%
CHC By 3-4 runs
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.8
NEW YORK
Chicago
5.4
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
New York
2
NEW YORK
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
C
Sim
Yankees (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o6.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.2
A
Sim
u6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
NYY @ CHC
2 - 1
Aug 1, 2026
NYY @ CHC
2 - 5
Jul 31, 2026
NYY @ CHC
2 - 0
Jul 13, 2025
CHC @ NYY
4 - 1
Jul 12, 2025
CHC @ NYY
5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Chicago
CHC
1
Games Played
▲
2
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
1.041
▲
OPS
.374
2
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+39.9% more
Chicago: 8.7
vs
New York: 6.2
Total Bases (L5)
+18.9% more
Chicago: 12.6
vs
New York: 10.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+94.4% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+66.7%
New York: 1.0%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
4.8
2
CHC Score
5.4
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 6.2
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 10.0
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 10.6
12.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.3
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +106 / -115
→
+106 / -115
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 6
→
6
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
NYY
CHC
NYY
ML
58%
93-68
47%
76-85
51%
82-79
52%
85-77
ATS
61%
97-63-1
59%
95-66
47%
75-85-1
53%
86-76
TTL
52%
81-74-6
53%
81-73-7
46%
72-83-6
53%
82-72-7
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