WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
55-57 | Road
3
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
66-45 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Miles Mikolas
#36 | SP@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Victor Mederos
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Mikolas | 3-7 | 5.67 | 1.33 | 6.0 | 3 |
| Victor Mederos | None-None | 3.77 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
3-7
W-L
None-None
5.67
ERA
Ldr 3.77
1.33
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
57%
BRAVES
43%
▲ Edge: +14.40% (WSH)
NATIONALS
42%
Book Odds: +137
BRAVES
62%
Book Odds: -166
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.4 (Under)
Over 9.5
47%
Under 9.5
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.7
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL +0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.4%
WSH By 3-4 runs
15.5%
ATL By 1-2 runs
17.0%
ATL By 3-4 runs
11.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4.9
WASHINGTON
Atlanta
4.2
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nationals
Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.7
A
Sim
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.1
D
Sim
o9.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
ATL @ WSH
9 - 0
Sep 1, 2026
ATL @ WSH
5 - 9
Aug 2, 2026
WSH @ ATL
2 - 4
Aug 1, 2026
WSH @ ATL
3 - 8
Jul 31, 2026
WSH @ ATL
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
5.00
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.744
OPS
▲
.757
210
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.5% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+75.0% more
Washington: 0.9
vs
Atlanta: 0.2
Walks (L5)
+38.9% more
Washington: 4.5
vs
Atlanta: 2.8
Home Runs (L5)
+24.3% more
Washington: 1.9
vs
Atlanta: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.9
3
ATL Score
4.2
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.9
3.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.2 / 8.3
10.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.9
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 6.8
6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 16.1
22.0 / 6.0
Walks
2.8 / 4.5
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +159 / -194
→
+137 / -166
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
9.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
WSH
ATL
WSH
ML
46%
77-90
57%
92-69
54%
90-78
54%
87-74
ATS
57%
96-71
58%
93-68
52%
87-81
57%
91-70
TTL
53%
83-73-11
50%
77-78-6
49%
76-80-11
42%
65-90-6
Contextual Game News
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