TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
55-56 | Road
4
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
57-55 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob deGrom
#48 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ronel Blanco
#56 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | 7-6 | 3.96 | 1.07 | 3.1 | 3 |
| Ronel Blanco | 0-1 | 7.36 | 1.20 | 4.2 | 4 |
7-6
W-L
0-1
3.96 Ldr
ERA
7.36
1.07 Ldr
WHIP
1.20
3.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.2
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
67%
ASTROS
33%
▲ Edge: +11% (TEX)
RANGERS
56%
Book Odds: -126
ASTROS
49%
Book Odds: +104
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.8 (Over)
Over 8.0
68%
Under 8.0
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TEX By 3-4 runs
18.1%
HOU By 1-2 runs
14.1%
HOU By 3-4 runs
8.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
5.8
TEXAS
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rangers
Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Astros
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rangers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
Astros (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
A
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
TEX @ HOU
3 - 7
Aug 1, 2026
TEX @ HOU
4 - 5
Jul 31, 2026
TEX @ HOU
2 - 11
Jul 12, 2026
HOU @ TEX
5 - 6
Jul 11, 2026
HOU @ TEX
9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.15
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.713
▲
OPS
.582
183
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.8% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+27.7% more
Texas: 4.2
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+13.1%
Texas: 71.3%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+8.8%
Texas: 31.7%
vs
Houston: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
5.8
4
HOU Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.9 / 6.3
9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
2.2 / 0.8
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.2 / 9.5
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
20.7 / 10.6
14.0 / 13.0
Walks
4.3 / 3.1
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +108 / -130
→
-126 / +104
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
TEX
HOU
TEX
ML
50%
81-82
53%
86-76
47%
77-87
57%
91-70
ATS
56%
91-72
57%
92-70
55%
90-74
61%
98-63
TTL
45%
70-84-9
53%
78-70-14
45%
69-86-9
55%
81-66-14
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…
Yankees' Season Ends in Sweep as Boone Faces Fan Fury Over 'Brok…