PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
58-53 | Road
5
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
54-57 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cristopher Sanchez
#61 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Shane Baz
#34 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez | 13-4 | 2.61 | 1.20 | 6.0 | 11 |
| Shane Baz | 4-9 | 3.86 | 1.39 | 6.1 | 4 |
13-4
W-L
4-9
2.61 Ldr
ERA
3.86
1.20 Ldr
WHIP
1.39
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.1
11 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
62%
ORIOLES
38%
▲ Edge: +1.40% (PHI)
PHILLIES
61%
Book Odds: -154
ORIOLES
44%
Book Odds: +127
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.8 (Over)
Over 8.0
59%
Under 8.0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.2%
BAL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.1
PHILADELPHIA
Baltimore
3.7
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Orioles
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.8
B
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
PHI @ BAL
8 - 0
Aug 1, 2026
PHI @ BAL
5 - 0
Jul 31, 2026
PHI @ BAL
4 - 6
Aug 6, 2025
BAL @ PHI
5 - 1
Aug 5, 2025
BAL @ PHI
0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Baltimore
BAL
2
Games Played
▲
161
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.724
▲
OPS
.711
3
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+29.6% more
Philadelphia: 1.2
vs
Baltimore: 0.8
Slugging Pct (Season)
+4.2%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Baltimore: 39.6%
OPS (Season)
+1.3%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
Baltimore: 71.1%
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.3%
Philadelphia: 24.7%
vs
Baltimore: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.1
5
BAL Score
3.7
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 7.3
3.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 7.8
14.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 12.3
3.0 / 12.0
Walks
4.8 / 3.0
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -141 / +117
→
-154 / +127
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
PHI
BAL
PHI
ML
53%
83-73
59%
97-67
57%
90-69
49%
80-84
ATS
61%
95-60-1
65%
107-57
57%
90-68-1
51%
83-81
TTL
54%
81-70-5
57%
88-67-9
51%
78-75-6
51%
78-76-9
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