PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
56-56 | Road
4
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
52-58 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Abbott
#41 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Ashcraft | 10-4 | 3.96 | 1.19 | 5.0 | 5 |
| Andrew Abbott | 5-6 | 3.91 | 1.38 | 5.0 | 1 |
10-4
W-L
5-6
3.96
ERA
Ldr 3.91
1.19 Ldr
WHIP
1.38
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
44%
REDS
56%
▲ Edge: +6.50% (CIN)
PIRATES
55%
Book Odds: -121
REDS
50%
Book Odds: +100
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
56%
Under 8.5
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
PIT By 1-2 runs
17.2%
PIT By 3-4 runs
11.8%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
4.2
PITTSBURGH
Cincinnati
4.8
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
A
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
PIT @ CIN
2 - 10
Aug 1, 2026
PIT @ CIN
4 - 1
Jul 31, 2026
PIT @ CIN
7 - 8
Jul 30, 2026
PIT @ CIN
2 - 3
Jun 28, 2026
CIN @ PIT
4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.734
▲
OPS
.699
186
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+131.3% more
Cincinnati: 5.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 2.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+54.2% more
Cincinnati: 12.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 8.2
Home Runs (Season)
+14.5% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 186.0
Home Runs (L5)
+14.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.2
4
CIN Score
4.8
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.9
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.7 / 9.3
3.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
12.6 / 8.2
10.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
14.2 / 13.7
7.0 / 7.0
Walks
5.7 / 2.5
2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -119 / -101
→
-121 / +100
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
PIT
CIN
PIT
ML
55%
88-71
52%
82-77
49%
79-81
52%
85-78
ATS
54%
86-73
54%
86-73
50%
80-80
50%
81-82
TTL
53%
81-73-5
47%
72-81-6
54%
83-72-5
50%
79-78-6
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