MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
56-56 | Road
3
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
54-58 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Connor Prielipp
#61 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Gilbert
#36 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Prielipp | 3-5 | 4.75 | 1.30 | 5.1 | 5 |
| Logan Gilbert | 8-6 | 3.46 | 0.99 | 7.0 | 6 |
3-5
W-L
8-6
4.75
ERA
Ldr 3.46
1.30
WHIP
Ldr 0.99
5.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
5
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
41%
MARINERS
59%
TWINS
42%
Book Odds: +141
MARINERS
63%
Book Odds: -171
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 7.0
64%
Under 7.0
36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
MIN By 1-2 runs
16.6%
MIN By 3-4 runs
10.9%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.5%
SEA By 3-4 runs
16.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3.7
MINNESOTA
Seattle
4.6
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mariners
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.3
B
Sim
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
MIN @ SEA
6 - 7
Aug 1, 2026
MIN @ SEA
3 - 4
Jul 31, 2026
MIN @ SEA
5 - 3
Apr 29, 2026
SEA @ MIN
5 - 3
Apr 28, 2026
SEA @ MIN
7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Seattle
SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.720
▲
OPS
.693
187
▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+51.9% more
Seattle: 10.6
vs
Minnesota: 7.0
Walks (L5)
+25.7% more
Seattle: 3.1
vs
Minnesota: 2.5
Home Runs (L5)
+19.7% more
Minnesota: 1.3
vs
Seattle: 1.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+10.1% more
Minnesota: 4.6
vs
Seattle: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.7
3
SEA Score
4.6
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.6 / 6.4
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.3
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.6 / 7.0
8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 11.8
12.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.5
8.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +158 / -193
→
+141 / -171
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
MIN
SEA
MIN
ML
50%
81-81
52%
84-78
52%
85-77
50%
80-81
ATS
60%
98-64
59%
95-67
59%
95-67
59%
95-66
TTL
56%
85-67-10
51%
78-75-9
53%
81-71-10
53%
80-72-9
Contextual Game News
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox