Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Mets MIA @ NYM

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

57-55  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Aug 1 • 4:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

47-65  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Phillips
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Phillips

#30 | Starting Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Zac Thornton

#49 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Phillips 2-5 3.53 1.36 5.0 3
Zac Thornton 2-1 2.88 0.91 4.2 2
2-5 W-L 2-1
3.53 ERA Ldr 2.88
1.36 WHIP Ldr 0.91
5.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 4.2
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
40%
📊
METS
60%
▲ Edge: +3.90% (NYM)
MARLINS 46% Book Odds: +118
METS 56% Book Odds: -127
Book Implied: 45.90% / 55.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.2 (Under)
Over 9.0 46%
Under 9.0 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

38.2%

Mets Cover

61.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

MIA By 1-2 runs

15.8%

MIA By 3-4 runs

10.0%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
MIAMI
5
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
MIAMI
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
C
Sim
Proj Runs:
None
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 NYM @ MIA 15 - 14
Sep 8, 2026 NYM @ MIA 7 - 5
Sep 7, 2026 NYM @ MIA 9 - 4
Aug 2, 2026 MIA @ NYM 2 - 0
Aug 1, 2026 MIA @ NYM 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.41 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.727 ▲
OPS
.705
168
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +42.0% more
New York: 10.3 vs Miami: 7.3
Home Runs (Season) +21.4% more
New York: 204.0 vs Miami: 168.0
Errors (L5) +45.0% more
Miami: 0.8 vs New York: 0.4
Home Runs (L5) +28.9% more
Miami: 1.4 vs New York: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 3.8 6
NYM Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.8 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.1 / 7.8 7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.4 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.3 / 7.3 5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 11.2 / 13.7 10.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.8 / 3.0 0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +118 / -127 → +118 / -127
37%TICKETS63%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
26%TICKETS74%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 9
37%TICKETS63%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
MIA
NYM
MIA
ML
50% 79-80
48% 78-84
48% 76-83
55% 88-72
ATS
58% 93-66
56% 91-71
49% 78-81
54% 86-74
TTL
55% 80-66-13
56% 88-69-5
51% 74-72-13
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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