CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
58-52 | Road
0
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
65-45 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jordan Hicks
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Drew Rasmussen
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Hicks | 1-1 | 3.09 | 1.48 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Drew Rasmussen | 9-5 | 2.91 | 0.93 | 6.0 | 10 |
1-1
W-L
9-5
3.09
ERA
Ldr 2.91
1.48
WHIP
Ldr 0.93
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 10
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
54%
RAYS
46%
▲ Edge: +13.80% (CHW)
WHITE SOX
40%
Book Odds: +151
RAYS
62%
Book Odds: -165
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.1 (Under)
Over 7.5
49%
Under 7.5
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.4
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB +0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.0%
CHW By 3-4 runs
14.7%
TB By 1-2 runs
17.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
12.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
3.9
CHICAGO
Tampa Bay
3.5
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
White Sox
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.4
A
Sim
White Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
CHW @ TB
9 - 1
Aug 1, 2026
CHW @ TB
0 - 1
Jul 31, 2026
CHW @ TB
6 - 1
Apr 16, 2026
TB @ CHW
5 - 3
Apr 15, 2026
TB @ CHW
8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.826
▲
OPS
.728
1
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+73.3% more
Chicago: 1.3
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.4
Walks (L5)
+51.4% more
Chicago: 3.5
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.7
Home Runs (L5)
+39.8% more
Chicago: 2.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+24.3% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
3.9
0
TB Score
3.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.4 / 7.4
5.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 2.0
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 7.5
8.0 / 16.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 14.4
5.0 / 5.0
Walks
1.7 / 3.5
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +150 / -182
→
+151 / -165
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CHW
TB
CHW
ML
58%
95-68
49%
81-86
58%
95-68
56%
94-73
ATS
60%
97-66
59%
99-68
55%
90-73
56%
93-74
TTL
47%
73-81-9
58%
96-69-2
51%
78-75-10
51%
84-81-2
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