ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
54-57 | Road
1
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
52-59 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Quinn Mathews
#60 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Rogers
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Mathews | 0-0 | 3.60 | 0.00 | 5.0 | 3 |
| Tyler Rogers | None-None | 1.65 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
0-0
W-L
None-None
3.60
ERA
Ldr 1.65
0.00
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
59%
BLUE JAYS
41%
▲ Edge: +17.80% (STL)
CARDINALS
41%
Book Odds: +142
BLUE JAYS
63%
Book Odds: -172
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.6 (Under)
Over 8.0
46%
Under 8.0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
STL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
STL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
4.2
ST. LOUIS
Toronto
3.2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
A
Sim
Cardinals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
C
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
STL @ TOR
5 - 1
Aug 1, 2026
STL @ TOR
1 - 5
Jul 31, 2026
STL @ TOR
1 - 3
Jun 11, 2025
TOR @ STL
5 - 2
Jun 10, 2025
TOR @ STL
10 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.691
OPS
▲
.692
167
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+39.6% more
St. Louis: 8.7
vs
Toronto: 5.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+9.9% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Home Runs (Season)
+9.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.3%
St. Louis: 31.3%
vs
Toronto: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
4.2
1
TOR Score
3.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.4 / 7.0
9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.3 / 8.7
4.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 9.2
11.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.0
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +117 / -141
→
+142 / -172
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
STL
TOR
STL
ML
46%
74-87
53%
85-74
50%
80-80
52%
84-77
ATS
56%
90-71
56%
89-70
49%
79-81
53%
85-76
TTL
51%
80-76-5
46%
68-81-10
45%
70-85-5
50%
76-75-10
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