Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Dodgers BOS @ LAD

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

58-51  |  Road

9
FINAL
Fri, Jul 31 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

69-41  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Ranger Suarez
STARTING PITCHER

Ranger Suarez

#55 | Starting Pitcher
@
Edgardo Henriquez
STARTING PITCHER

Edgardo Henriquez

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ranger Suarez 4-3 3.15 1.15 4.2 2
Edgardo Henriquez 4-1 2.72 1.05 1.0 1
4-3 W-L 4-1
3.15 ERA Ldr 2.72
1.15 WHIP Ldr 1.05
4.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
40%
📊
DODGERS
60%
▲ Edge: +1.90% (LAD)
RED SOX 47% Book Odds: +113
DODGERS 58% Book Odds: -136
Book Implied: 46.90% / 57.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.2 (Under)
Over 8.5 41%
Under 8.5 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

39.2%

Dodgers Cover

60.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

BOS By 1-2 runs

16.1%

BOS By 3-4 runs

10.3%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.1
BOSTON
4.2
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Dodgers Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
C
Sim Red Sox (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.3
B
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 BOS @ LAD 8 - 4
Aug 1, 2026 BOS @ LAD 3 - 2
Jul 31, 2026 BOS @ LAD 9 - 4
Jul 27, 2025 LAD @ BOS 3 - 4
Jul 26, 2025 LAD @ BOS 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Los Angeles LAD
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.409
OPS
▲ .762
2
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +10100.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +394.0% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season) +35.3%
Los Angeles: 76.2% vs Boston: 40.9%
On-Base Pct (Season) +17.9%
Los Angeles: 33.8% vs Boston: 15.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 3.1 9
LAD Score 4.2 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 1.4 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.6 / 8.5 10.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.5 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 9.7 5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 15.9 / 14.2 14.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.4 / 3.3 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +107 / -118 → +113 / -136 ↑
26%TICKETS74%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
29%TICKETS71%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
86%TICKETS14%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
BOS
LAD
BOS
ML
56% 92-73
50% 80-80
48% 79-87
47% 76-87
ATS
59% 98-67
58% 93-67
43% 72-94
48% 79-84
TTL
48% 77-82-6
46% 72-83-5
44% 70-90-6
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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