SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
47-63 | Road
0
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
56-54 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Carson Whisenhunt
#88 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Bradgley Rodriguez
#72 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Whisenhunt | 2-1 | 6.63 | 1.40 | 3.1 | 3 |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | 2-2 | 2.28 | 1.17 | 1.0 | 2 |
2-1
W-L
2-2
6.63
ERA
Ldr 2.28
1.40
WHIP
Ldr 1.17
3.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
41%
PADRES
59%
GIANTS
45%
Book Odds: +124
PADRES
60%
Book Odds: -150
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 8.5
68%
Under 8.5
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SF By 1-2 runs
16.1%
SF By 3-4 runs
10.3%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
16.6%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
4.7
SAN FRANCISCO
San Diego
5.8
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
San Francisco
3
SAN FRANCISCO
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Padres
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.5
A
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
SD @ SF
6 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
SD @ SF
7 - 6
Sep 11, 2026
SD @ SF
7 - 5
Aug 2, 2026
SF @ SD
4 - 5
Aug 1, 2026
SF @ SD
5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.13
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.706
OPS
▲
.925
178
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+45.3% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
San Francisco: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+21.9%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
San Francisco: 70.6%
Errors (L5)
+17.0% more
San Diego: 0.6
vs
San Francisco: 0.4
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.3%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
San Francisco: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
4.7
0
SD Score
5.8
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 10.5
12.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 6.1
6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.3 / 15.3
17.0 / 2.0
Walks
2.7 / 4.0
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +129 / -143
→
+124 / -150
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
SF
SD
SF
ML
51%
85-83
49%
79-81
51%
85-82
53%
85-75
ATS
54%
91-77
62%
100-60
55%
92-75
52%
83-77
TTL
51%
82-80-6
55%
82-68-10
54%
86-74-6
46%
68-81-11
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