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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

52-58  |  Road

13
FINAL
Fri, Jul 31 • 9:40 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

45-65  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Holton
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Holton

#87 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jeffrey Springs
STARTING PITCHER

Jeffrey Springs

#59 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Holton 1-4 3.10 1.33 2.0 1
Jeffrey Springs 3-10 6.17 1.45 4.0 2
1-4 W-L 3-10
3.10 Ldr ERA 6.17
1.33 Ldr WHIP 1.45
2.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
77%
📊
ATHLETICS
23%
▲ Edge: +16.10% (DET)
TIGERS 61% Book Odds: -156
ATHLETICS 42% Book Odds: +140
Book Implied: 60.90% / 41.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
10.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 10.5 46%
Under 10.5 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

78.8%

Athletics Cover

21.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

18.1%

DET By 3-4 runs

19.7%

ATH By 1-2 runs

10.0%

ATH By 3-4 runs

5.0%

AI Model Projected Score
6.6
DETROIT
3.4
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
6
DETROIT
4
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
77% Win Prob
A
Sim Tigers Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.2
A
Sim Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u10.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim u10.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 DET @ ATH 11 - 0
Aug 1, 2026 DET @ ATH 8 - 6
Jul 31, 2026 DET @ ATH 13 - 1
Jul 9, 2026 ATH @ DET 1 - 4
Jul 8, 2026 ATH @ DET 1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.720 ▲
OPS
.719
181
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +34.6% more
Detroit: 3.2 vs Athletics: 2.1
Total Bases (L5) +32.0% more
Detroit: 19.8 vs Athletics: 13.5
Hits (L5) +30.1% more
Detroit: 11.6 vs Athletics: 8.1
Home Runs (L5) +21.7% more
Detroit: 1.2 vs Athletics: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 6.6 13
ATH Score 3.4 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 11.6 3.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.2 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 7.9 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.5 / 19.8 4.0 / 26.0
Walks 2.1 / 3.2 3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -156 / +140 → -156 / +140
83%TICKETS17%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
64%TICKETS36%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: 10.5 → 10.5
35%TICKETS65%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
DET
ATH
DET
ML
59% 95-67
54% 86-73
54% 87-74
54% 87-73
ATS
52% 84-78
64% 101-58
50% 81-80
57% 91-69
TTL
54% 84-73-5
46% 69-81-9
42% 66-90-5
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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