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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

46-65  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Jul 31 • 8:40 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

43-67  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Michael Wacha
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Wacha

#52 | Starting Pitcher
@
Tomoyuki Sugano
STARTING PITCHER

Tomoyuki Sugano

#11 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael Wacha 5-7 3.51 1.17 6.0 7
Tomoyuki Sugano 10-4 4.47 1.29 6.2 2
5-7 W-L 10-4
3.51 Ldr ERA 4.47
1.17 Ldr WHIP 1.29
6.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.2
7 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
60%
📊
ROCKIES
40%
▲ Edge: +7.80% (KC)
ROYALS 53% Book Odds: -111
ROCKIES 52% Book Odds: -108
Book Implied: 52.60% / 51.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
11.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.4 (Under)
Over 11.0 22%
Under 11.0 78%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.2
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

38.2%

Rockies Cover

61.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL +1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

KC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

KC By 3-4 runs

16.8%

COL By 1-2 runs

15.8%

COL By 3-4 runs

10.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.4
KANSAS CITY
3.2
COLORADO
Simulated Score
6
KANSAS CITY
5
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Royals Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.2
C
Sim Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u11.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.6
A
Sim o11.0 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 KC @ COL 1 - 8
Aug 1, 2026 KC @ COL 6 - 12
Jul 31, 2026 KC @ COL 1 - 3
Apr 24, 2025 COL @ KC 2 - 6
Apr 22, 2025 COL @ KC 3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.718
OPS
▲ .739
170
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +23.2% more
Kansas City: 3.0 vs Colorado: 2.3
Total Bases (L5) +13.6% more
Kansas City: 13.1 vs Colorado: 11.3
Home Runs (L5) +10.0% more
Kansas City: 1.0 vs Colorado: 0.9
Errors (L5) +108.0% more
Colorado: 1.3 vs Kansas City: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.4 1
COL Score 3.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.3 / 0.2 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.3 / 7.9 5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 11.5 / 7.9 8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 11.3 / 13.1 7.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.3 / 3.0 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -104 / -106 → -111 / -108
55%TICKETS45%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
48%TICKETS52%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: 11 → 11
44%TICKETS56%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
KC
COL
KC
ML
60% 97-64
55% 89-72
55% 88-73
56% 90-70
ATS
60% 97-64
57% 91-70
52% 83-78
58% 93-67
TTL
60% 93-62-6
58% 90-64-7
50% 77-78-6
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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