TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
55-55 | Road
2
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
56-55 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nathan Eovaldi
#17 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Brown
#58 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | 10-8 | 4.31 | 1.17 | 5.0 | 5 |
| Hunter Brown | 2-1 | 3.42 | 1.28 | 5.2 | 5 |
10-8
W-L
2-1
4.31
ERA
Ldr 3.42
1.17 Ldr
WHIP
1.28
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.2
5
K (Strikeouts)
5
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
54%
ASTROS
46%
▲ Edge: +6.60% (TEX)
RANGERS
48%
Book Odds: +109
ASTROS
57%
Book Odds: -131
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.6 (Over)
Over 7.5
65%
Under 7.5
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU +0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.1%
TEX By 3-4 runs
15.0%
HOU By 1-2 runs
17.5%
HOU By 3-4 runs
12.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4.8
TEXAS
Houston
4.3
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rangers
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.5
A
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.1
A
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
TEX @ HOU
3 - 7
Aug 1, 2026
TEX @ HOU
4 - 5
Jul 31, 2026
TEX @ HOU
2 - 11
Jul 12, 2026
HOU @ TEX
5 - 6
Jul 11, 2026
HOU @ TEX
9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.15
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.713
▲
OPS
.582
183
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.8% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+27.7% more
Texas: 4.2
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+13.1%
Texas: 71.3%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+8.8%
Texas: 31.7%
vs
Houston: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.8
2
HOU Score
4.3
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 5.5
18.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 0.8
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.2 / 10.8
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.0 / 9.9
32.0 / 12.0
Walks
4.0 / 3.7
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +115 / -127
→
+109 / -131
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
TEX
HOU
TEX
ML
50%
81-82
53%
86-76
47%
77-87
57%
91-70
ATS
56%
91-72
57%
92-70
55%
90-74
61%
98-63
TTL
45%
70-84-9
53%
78-70-14
45%
69-86-9
55%
81-66-14
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