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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

55-56  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Jul 31 • 7:15 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

65-45  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Jorbit Vivas
STARTING PITCHER

Jorbit Vivas

#84 | Third Base
@
Bryce Elder
STARTING PITCHER

Bryce Elder

#55 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jorbit Vivas None-None -- -- -- --
Bryce Elder 6-6 3.84 1.25 6.0 3
None-None W-L 6-6
-- ERA 3.84
-- WHIP 1.25
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 6.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
66%
📊
BRAVES
34%
▲ Edge: +16.70% (WSH)
NATIONALS 49% Book Odds: +103
BRAVES 55% Book Odds: -124
Book Implied: 49.30% / 55.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.6 (Under)
Over 9.0 46%
Under 9.0 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 BravesATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

67.4%

Braves Cover

32.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.7%

WSH By 3-4 runs

18.1%

ATL By 1-2 runs

14.1%

ATL By 3-4 runs

8.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5.1
WASHINGTON
3.3
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
4
WASHINGTON
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nationals Loss
66% Win Prob
B
Sim Braves Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nationals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim Braves (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 ATL @ WSH 9 - 0
Sep 1, 2026 ATL @ WSH 5 - 9
Aug 2, 2026 WSH @ ATL 2 - 4
Aug 1, 2026 WSH @ ATL 3 - 8
Jul 31, 2026 WSH @ ATL 2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Atlanta ATL
162 ▲
Games Played
1
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
5.00
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .324
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .433
.744
OPS
▲ .757
210 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.5% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5) +62.0% more
Washington: 0.9 vs Atlanta: 0.3
Walks (L5) +44.6% more
Washington: 4.8 vs Atlanta: 2.7
Home Runs (L5) +37.5% more
Washington: 1.8 vs Atlanta: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 5.1 2
ATL Score 3.3 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.3 / 7.9 12.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.8 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 6.7 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.5 / 16.2 19.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.7 / 4.8 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +103 / -114 → +103 / -124 ↑
37%TICKETS63%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
58%TICKETS42%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 9
28%TICKETS72%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
WSH
ATL
WSH
ML
46% 77-90
57% 92-69
54% 90-78
54% 87-74
ATS
57% 96-71
58% 93-68
52% 87-81
57% 91-70
TTL
53% 83-73-11
50% 77-78-6
49% 76-80-11
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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