Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Mets MIA @ NYM

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

56-55  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, Jul 31 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

47-64  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Janson Junk
STARTING PITCHER

Janson Junk

#26 | Starting Pitcher
@
Kodai Senga
STARTING PITCHER

Kodai Senga

#34 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Janson Junk 4-6 4.58 1.36 5.0 4
Kodai Senga 0-7 8.66 1.84 4.0 4
4-6 W-L 0-7
4.58 Ldr ERA 8.66
1.36 Ldr WHIP 1.84
5.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 4.0
4 K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
45%
📊
METS
55%
MARLINS 48% Book Odds: +109
METS 57% Book Odds: -131
Book Implied: 47.80% / 56.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.4
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 (Over)
Over 8.5 75%
Under 8.5 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

44.0%

Mets Cover

56.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

MIA By 1-2 runs

17.2%

MIA By 3-4 runs

11.8%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.3%

NYM By 3-4 runs

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5.4
MIAMI
6
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
B
Sim Mets (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.4
A
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 NYM @ MIA 15 - 14
Sep 8, 2026 NYM @ MIA 7 - 5
Sep 7, 2026 NYM @ MIA 9 - 4
Aug 2, 2026 MIA @ NYM 2 - 0
Aug 1, 2026 MIA @ NYM 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.41 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.727 ▲
OPS
.705
168
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +21.4% more
New York: 204.0 vs Miami: 168.0
Strikeouts (L5) +20.0% more
New York: 9.5 vs Miami: 7.9
Home Runs (L5) +38.0% more
Miami: 1.6 vs New York: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +16.5% more
Miami: 13.6 vs New York: 11.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 5.4 5
NYM Score 6.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.2 / 7.6 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 7.9 12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 13.6 11.0 / 14.0
Walks 3.3 / 3.6 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +112 / -123 → +109 / -131 ↑
32%TICKETS68%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
28%TICKETS72%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
42%TICKETS58%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
MIA
NYM
MIA
ML
50% 79-80
48% 78-84
48% 76-83
55% 88-72
ATS
58% 93-66
56% 91-71
49% 78-81
54% 86-74
TTL
55% 80-66-13
56% 88-69-5
51% 74-72-13
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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