Home / MLB Projections MLB / White Sox @ Rays CHW @ TB

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

58-51  |  Road

6
FINAL
Fri, Jul 31 • 7:10 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

64-45  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Erick Fedde
STARTING PITCHER

Erick Fedde

#47 | Starting Pitcher
@
Nick Martinez
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Martinez

#28 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Erick Fedde 5-6 4.13 1.40 5.0 6
Nick Martinez 10-2 2.77 1.10 6.0 2
5-6 W-L 10-2
4.13 ERA Ldr 2.77
1.40 WHIP Ldr 1.10
5.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
6 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
41%
📊
RAYS
59%
▲ Edge: +1.10% (TB)
WHITE SOX 47% Book Odds: +114
RAYS 58% Book Odds: -137
Book Implied: 46.70% / 57.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.9 (Under)
Over 8.5 44%
Under 8.5 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

40.1%

Rays Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

CHW By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CHW By 3-4 runs

10.6%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.3
CHICAGO
4.3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
5
CHICAGO
3
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rays Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim White Sox Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rays (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim White Sox (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.6
C
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 CHW @ TB 9 - 1
Aug 1, 2026 CHW @ TB 0 - 1
Jul 31, 2026 CHW @ TB 6 - 1
Apr 16, 2026 TB @ CHW 5 - 3
Apr 15, 2026 TB @ CHW 8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Tampa Bay TB
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.826 ▲
OPS
.728
1
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +16800.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +33.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.3 vs Chicago: 0.9
Walks (L5) +63.5% more
Chicago: 4.2 vs Tampa Bay: 1.5
Errors (L5) +45.0% more
Chicago: 1.0 vs Tampa Bay: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 3.3 6
TB Score 4.3 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 1.0 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.0 / 7.1 5.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.9 1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 10.3 9.0 / 2.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 11.6 10.0 / 20.0
Walks 1.5 / 4.2 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +132 / -147 → +114 / -137 ↓
18%TICKETS82%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
15%TICKETS85%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
40%TICKETS60%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-80-0 (52.4%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(57.7%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
97-69-2
O: 58.4% / U: 41.6% Total +/-: +1.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CHW
TB
CHW
ML
58% 95-68
48% 81-87
58% 95-68
56% 94-74
ATS
60% 97-66
59% 99-69
55% 90-73
55% 93-75
TTL
47% 73-81-9
58% 97-69-2
51% 78-75-10
51% 85-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
cbssports 0 minutes ago
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
foxnews 0 minutes ago
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
si 0 minutes ago
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
yardbarker 0 minutes ago
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 2 hours, 56 minutes ago