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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

58-52  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Jul 31 • 7:10 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

56-55  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Mitch Bratt
STARTING PITCHER

Mitch Bratt

#60 | Starting Pitcher
@
Tanner Bibee
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Bibee

#28 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mitch Bratt 0-1 5.23 1.98 5.0 2
Tanner Bibee 4-10 3.81 1.18 7.1 3
0-1 W-L 4-10
5.23 ERA Ldr 3.81
1.98 WHIP Ldr 1.18
5.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.1
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
47%
📊
GUARDIANS
53%
▲ Edge: +0.60% (ARI)
DIAMONDBACKS 47% Book Odds: +113
GUARDIANS 58% Book Odds: -136
Book Implied: 46.90% / 57.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.2 (Under)
Over 8.5 49%
Under 8.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

47.0%

Guardians Cover

53.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

ARI By 1-2 runs

17.9%

ARI By 3-4 runs

12.7%

CLE By 1-2 runs

18.9%

CLE By 3-4 runs

14.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4
ARIZONA
4.3
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
3
ARIZONA
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Guardians Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Guardians (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim Guardians (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 ARI @ CLE 0 - 5
Aug 1, 2026 ARI @ CLE 12 - 8
Jul 31, 2026 ARI @ CLE 4 - 1
Aug 20, 2025 CLE @ ARI 2 - 3
Aug 19, 2025 CLE @ ARI 5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.720 ▲
OPS
.696
166 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +27.5% more
Cleveland: 4.0 vs Arizona: 3.1
Total Bases (L5) +30.0% more
Arizona: 14.5 vs Cleveland: 10.2
Errors (L5) +30.0% more
Arizona: 0.6 vs Cleveland: 0.3
Hits (L5) +21.9% more
Arizona: 9.3 vs Cleveland: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 4.0 4
CLE Score 4.3 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.3 / 9.3 3.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 7.0 5.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 10.2 / 14.5 4.0 / 6.0
Walks 4.0 / 3.1 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +118 / -131 → +113 / -136 ↑
29%TICKETS71%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
27%TICKETS73%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
49%TICKETS51%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CLE
87-79-0 (52.4%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
ARI
CLE
ARI
ML
54% 87-75
54% 87-74
49% 80-83
54% 86-74
ATS
57% 93-69
57% 91-70
58% 95-68
56% 89-71
TTL
56% 89-71-2
52% 80-73-8
44% 70-90-2
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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