ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
54-56 | Road
1
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
51-59 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Cease
#84 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 7-4 | 3.44 | 1.34 | 6.0 | 3 |
| Dylan Cease | 7-5 | 2.41 | 1.09 | 6.0 | 7 |
7-4
W-L
7-5
3.44
ERA
Ldr 2.41
1.34
WHIP
Ldr 1.09
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
39%
BLUE JAYS
61%
▲ Edge: +0.90% (STL)
CARDINALS
38%
Book Odds: +161
BLUE JAYS
66%
Book Odds: -197
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 7.5
49%
Under 7.5
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
STL By 1-2 runs
15.8%
STL By 3-4 runs
10.0%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.8%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Toronto
4.2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
C
Sim
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.2
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
STL @ TOR
5 - 1
Aug 1, 2026
STL @ TOR
1 - 5
Jul 31, 2026
STL @ TOR
1 - 3
Jun 11, 2025
TOR @ STL
5 - 2
Jun 10, 2025
TOR @ STL
10 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.691
OPS
▲
.692
167
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+33.1% more
Toronto: 14.4
vs
St. Louis: 10.9
Home Runs (L5)
+22.0% more
Toronto: 0.7
vs
St. Louis: 0.5
Hits (L5)
+20.5% more
Toronto: 9.6
vs
St. Louis: 8.0
Errors (L5)
+15.0% more
Toronto: 0.7
vs
St. Louis: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.0
1
TOR Score
4.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.6 / 8.0
9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.9 / 7.6
4.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
14.4 / 10.9
11.0 / 6.0
Walks
2.9 / 3.1
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +144 / -160
→
+161 / -197
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
STL
TOR
STL
ML
46%
74-87
53%
85-74
50%
80-80
52%
84-77
ATS
56%
90-71
56%
89-70
49%
79-81
53%
85-76
TTL
51%
80-76-5
46%
68-81-10
45%
70-85-5
50%
76-75-10
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